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Relax. Jobs Are Up, But Inflation Isn't


Business Week International Business Outlook

RELAX. JOBS ARE UP, BUT INFLATION ISN'T

The employment report is supposed to be the Labor Dept.'s monthly snapshot of the U.S. labor market. The May installment, though, looked like a double exposure. Payrolls rose less than expected, a sign that economic growth is moderating to a less inflationary pace. However, the jobless rate dropped sharply to a level that suggests wage and price pressures are just around the bend. Which image is correct?

Stick with slower, noninflationary growth. Besides, the government's payroll survey has always been more dependable than its survey gf households, from which the data on the labor force and the unemployment rate are derived. That's especially true now, since Labor is still working out the kinks resulting from its switchover a few months ago to a new method for measuring joblessness that tries to remove gender bias from the survey.

The payroll data show that businesses added 191,000 workers in May, well below the hefty increases of 358,000 in April and 379,000 in March. But that gain includes the return of 70,000 Teamsters who were on strike in April. The May payroll additions were the narrowest in nine months, with only 50.6% of 356 industries putting on new workers.

The smaller May job gain, along with weaker April readings for the index of leading indicators, factory orders, and consumer spending, supports the idea that economic growth is cooling down to a pace that will be to the liking of both the financial markets and the Federal Reserve.

Without a doubt, labor markets are tighter now than a year ago. In fact, the weak California economy is single-handedly adding some 0.3 percentage points to the national jobless rate, suggesting an understatement of labor-market tightness across the rest of the U.S. (chart).

The plunge in the unemployment rate, however, from 6.4% in April to 6% in May, just didn't happen. Labor Dept. officials admit the reliability of the new household data is questionable. The main problem is insufficient data history, so proper seasonal adjustment cannot be made.

Moreover, the new data show that the labor force has risen only 0.8% in the past year. That runs counter to the growth in the working-age population, which has increased twice as fast. In particular, the numbers say the labor force hasn't grown at all since February. No way. If the work force had risen at a more realistic pace, the May jobless rate would have been significantly higher.

As Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Katherine Abraham noted after the May data were released, large movements in the unemployment rate in a single month often are partially reversed in the following month. That should be the case this time as well, suggesting far less upward pressure on wages than the May jobless rate would imply.

To date, wage growth shows little sign of accelerating. Average hourly earnings rose 0.5% in May, to $11.11, but so far in the second quarter, hourly pay has increased just 2.6% from a year ago. That annual pace is up just slightly from 2.4% in the second quarter of 1993 (chart).

Also, all of that pickup in the past year occurred in manufacturing, where productivity is growing at a near-record pace and unit labor costs are falling. Pay growth in the larger service sector has gone nowhere for two years.

But even as wage growth stays low, workers are generating plenty of income. That's because they are working longer hours. The workweek rose to 34.9 hours in May, a seven-year high. As a result, average weekly earnings during the past year are up 3.3%, faster than inflation.

Moreover, the quality of jobs is improving. Businesses, for instance, are relying less mn temporary help--employees who don't accrue benefits or seniority. In the past year, 336,000 jobs arose in what the Labor Dept. labels "personnel-supply services," or temporary help agencies. This sector chalked up 13.1% of all jobs created. That's down sharply from two years ago, when temp jobs accounted for half of all job growth (chart).

And a temp is no longer the stereotypical receptionist working the front desk. Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago examined temporary jobs classified as industrial workers--employees who handle heavy machinery, run production lines, and move goods. While some industrial workers may work at wholesale or transportation companies, most of them are probably employed in manufacturing.

The Chicago Fed researchers estimate that at the beginning of this expansion, about 100,000 new factory workers a year were hired through temp agencies. That rate has slowed to 85,000 in the past year, however, as factories have begun to add to their payrolls outright. What the analysis suggests is that instead of paring 62,000 production jobs since 1991, factories have actually added about 200,000 jobs.

If the May employment report was a bit blurry, the latest data on factory activity, consumer spending, and installment credit offer a more focused picture of the outlook. What's in the viewfinder? Evidence of slower growth as the economy begins feeling the effects of higher interest rates.

May's loss of 2,000 factory jobs and its shorter factory workweek, which fell from 42.2 hours in April to 42.1 hours, suggest that industrial production was weak last month. Slowing demand explains why manufacturers are not speeding up their assembly lines.

Factory orders slipped 0.1% in April, and since January, they are up just 1%, compared with a 5.6% gain in the preceding three months. Inventories, however, edged up only 0.2% in April. So factories aren't stuck with a stock overhang that would foreshadow steep output cuts.

Tight inventories can backfire sometimes, though. The recent drop-off in sales of motor vehicles is partly the result of a shortage of popular models as well as the impact of higher interest rates on car loans and leases. Sales of U.S.-made cars and light trucks fell to an annual rate of 12.6 million in May, down from 13.1 million in April (chart). Sales at department and chain stores slacked off in May, as well.

The shopping slowdown means that gains in installment credit should taper off. In April, however, consumers added a gargantuan $8.9 billion in debt--the most in more than nine years. But debt as a percentage of disposable income stood at 16.7% in April. While that ratio is on the rise, it is still quite manageable.

The expected gains in jobs and incomes mean that debt loads should remain benign. So, too, the expansion should stay on its course of slower growth. That trend isn't very glamorous, but it's the surest way to keep inflation out of the economic picture.JAMES C. COOPER AND KATHLEEN MADIGAN


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