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The Week Ahead


BUSINESS OUTLOOK

THE WEEK AHEAD

LEADING INDICATORS

Tuesday, June 29, 10 a.m.

The government's composite index of 11 leading indicators that gauge the economy's future growth path likely edged up by just 0.2% in May, after an even smaller 0.1% rise in April.

NEW SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES

Tuesday, June 29, 10 a.m.

New houses probably sold at an annual rate of 700,000 in May, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by MMS International, a division of McGraw-Hill Inc. Sales are expected to fall back in May, after they surged by 22.7%, to a 751,000 annual clip, in April. Still, excluding the April jump, the projected May pace would be the best sales performance in nearly four years.

FACTORY INVENTORIES

Wednesday, June 30, 10 a.m.

Manufacturers likely kept their inventories flat in May, after 0.2% gains in each of the preceding three months. That's suggested by the weakness in new orders and the meager 0.2% increase in factory output in May.

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING

Thursday, July 1, 8:30 a.m.

Construction outlays probably rose by 0.7% in May, after falling for two straight months, including a 0.4% dip in April. Increased homebuilding is lifting the overall construction sector.

NAPM SURVEY

Thursday, July 1, 10 a.m.

The National Association of Purchasing Management's index of industrial activity likely stood at 51.5% in June, little changed from its May reading of 51.1%.

EMPLOYMENT

Friday, July 2, 8:30 a.m.

The good news from the MMS forecast survey is that nonfarm jobs likely rose by a solid 155,000 in June, after a 209,000 advance in May. The bad news is that manufacturing jobs, already down 133,000 over the past three months, probably did not rise in June. Despite better hiring, the unemployment rate likely remained at 6.9% in June.JAMES C. COOPER AND KATHLEEN MADIGAN


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