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The Week Ahead


Business Outlook

THE WEEK AHEAD

FEDERAL BUDGET Monday, Nov. 23

The federal government will probably report a deficit of $41.3 billion in October, the first month of fiscal 1993. That's the expectation of economists surveyed by mms International, a unit of McGraw-Hill Inc. In October, 1991, the government was $36.6 billion in the red. For all of fiscal 1992, the federal deficit stood at a record $290.2 billion.

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS Tuesday, Nov. 24, 8:30 a.m.

New orders for durable goods probably increased by a small 1% in October. That's indicated by the better pace of durable-goods production in October. Orders have fallen for three months in a row, including a 0.1% drop in September. The expected gain suggests that the backlog of unfilled orders--which has fallen for more than a year--may post a small rise for October.

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (REVISION) Wednesday, Nov. 25, 8:30 a.m.

The MMS economists expect that the Commerce Dept. will not change its original estimate that the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.7% in the third quarter. An upward revision of consumer spending may be offset by a widening of the foreign-trade deficit last quarter. Real GDP grew at a 1.5% pace in the second period. The MMS consensus also projects that corporate aftertax profits were little changed in the third quarter, after rising 1.3% in the second.

PERSONAL INCOME Friday, Nov. 27, 10 a.m.

Personal income likely rose by 0.5% in October on top of a 0.7% gain in September. That's suggested by a healthy 0.8% increase in weekly pay and a small rise in nonfarm jobs. Consumer spending probably advanced by 0.6% last month. Retail sales were up by a strong 0.9% in October, but demand for services, which jumped 1.2% in September, probably fell back in October. Most of the service spending in September was related to the late summer hurricanes, and as a result, total consumer purchases rose 0.7% in September.JAMES C. COOPER AND KATHLEEN MADIGAN


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