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A Third Quarter Profit Preview: Not Half Bad


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A THIRD-QUARTER PROFIT PREVIEW: NOT HALF BAD

What do you call a quarter in which a Detroit auto maker actually posts a profit? Not bad. Chrysler Corp. wasn't the only company in BUSINESS WEEK's flash report on third-quarter profits to post an upside surprise. Wall Street had a neat three months, with both Merrill Lynch & Co. and PaineWebber Group Inc. beating forecasts. Yet the downside proved dramatic. AMR Corp., American Airlines' parent, took some bad blows, thanks to the summer's fare war. And IBM, of course, posted bad results. But take IBM out of the mix, and Wall Street analysts did a pretty good job of gauging the quarter's performance for the remaining 81 companies on our list. Consensus earnings estimates as of last Aug. 13--about midquarter--missed the mark by just a penny.A THIRD-QUARTER PROFIT PREVIEW

Current Current Est.

qtr. qtr. EPS Reported

sales %chg. profits %chg. (8/13) EPS Diff.

INDUSTRIAL $100,680.7 +9 7,240.6 +2- 0.75 0.77 +0.02

ALCOA 2,381.7 -4 62.2 -18 0.78 0.72 -0.06

AMERICAN CYANAMID 1,198.0 +7 60.9 +8 0.75 0.68 -0.07

AMOCO 7,261.0 +3 466.0 +61 0.66 0.94 +0.28

AVON 938.8 +9 53.9 +13 0.76 0.75 -0.01

BLACK & DECKER 1,185.7 +8 12.1 +23 0.26 0.11 -0.15

BOISE CASCADE 934.5 -8 -35.2 NM -1.15 -1.11 +0.04

BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB 3,102.6 +13 589.2 +5 1.21 1.14 -0.07

CHAMPION INTERNATIONAL 1,259.2 +3 50.5 +380 -0.13 0.47 +0.60

CHRYSLER 9,216.0 +22 202.0 NM 0.20 0.62 +0.42

COCA-COLA 3,507.5 +11 540.6 +18 0.42 0.41 -0.01

CORNING 1,162.0 +20 106.5 +2 0.60 0.56 -0.04

CPC INTERNATIONAL 1,601.5 +8 117.4 +10 0.77 0.76 -0.01

CUMMINS ENGINE 903.6 +6 14.0 NM 0.83 0.69 -0.14

GENERAL DYNAMICS 1,661.0 +16 62.0 +55 1.99 1.95 -0.04

GENERAL ELECTRIC 15,137.0 +6 1,110.0 +7 1.31 1.30 -0.01

GEORGIA-PACIFIC 3,061.0 +3 -37.0 NM 0.07 -0.43 -0.50

GILLETTE 1,249.2 +10 128.2 +23 0.56 0.58 +0.02

GREAT LAKES CHEMICAL 374.9 +14 60.0 +53 0.85 0.84 -0.01

JOHNSON & JOHNSON 3,480.0 +12 425.0 +17 0.64 0.65 +0.01

KELLOGG 1,670.7 +11 204.2 +18 0.84 0.86 +0.02

LOCKHEED 2,474.0 +4 86.0 +6 1.42 1.40 -0.02

MAYTAG 735.5 +1 -50.2 NM 0.26 -0.47 -0.73

MERCK 2,464.3 +16 644.5 +17 0.56 0.55 -0.01

OWENS-CORNING 786.0 +5 32.0 +23 0.90 0.75 -0.15

PEPSICO 5,640.0 +16 425.7 +49 0.51 0.53 +0.02

PFIZER 1,827.6 +3 297.5 +8 0.95 0.88 -0.07

PHILIP MORRIS 15,005.0 +9 1,291.0 +16 1.46 1.44 -0.02

RUBBERMAID 473.5 +10 52.6 +14 0.32 0.33 +0.01

TEXACO 10,005.0 +7 269.0 -6 0.99 0.94 -0.05

Current Current Est.

qtr. qtr. EPS Reported

sales %chg. profits %chg. (8/13) EPS Diff.

SERVICE $30,254.5 +5 1,641.3 NM 0.37 0.52 +0.15

AMR 3,725.0 +6 -85.0 NM 0.15 -1.13 -1.28

BLOCKBUSTER ENT. 283.8 +24 41.3 +51 0.21 0.22 +0.01

CAPITAL CITIES/ABC 1,215.3 0 62.2 +15 3.89 3.74 -0.15

CHEMICAL BANKING NA NA 282.0 +35 0.86 0.98 +0.12

CHEMICAL WASTE MGMT. 394.0 +16 38.7 +17 0.21 0.19 -0.02

CITICORP NA NA 116.0 NM 0.28 0.17 -0.11

CONSOLIDATED FREIGHTWAYS 1,037.8 +2 3.0 NM 0.19 -0.05 -0.24

DUN & BRADSTREET 1,190.4 +8 150.0 +11 0.86 0.84 -0.02

KROGER 6,333.1 +2 6.9 -59 0.21 0.08 -0.13

LIZ CLAIBORNE 618.3 +11 64.5 -2 0.78 0.77 -0.01

MARRIOTT 1,948.0 +6 26.0 +44 0.19 0.21 +0.02

McGRAW-HILL 532.7 +9 61.1 +11 1.26 1.25 -0.01

MERRILL LYNCH 3,390.2 +12 230.1 +44 1.60 2.05 +0.45

NATIONSBANK NA NA 350.0 +332 1.10 1.40 +0.30

PAINEWEBBER 836.5 +3 51.7 +35 0.66 1.06 +0.40

SAFEWAY 3,455.5 -2 20.0 -62 0.30 0.17 -0.13

SCHWAB (CHARLES) 196.8 -3 7.8 -41 0.43 0.20 -0.23

TIME WARNER 3,246.0 +10 6.0 NM -1.42 -0.41 +1.01

UNION PACIFIC 1,851.0 +6 185.0 NM 0.93 0.91 -0.02

WELLS FARGO NA NA 24.0 -72 1.42 0.21 -1.21

Current Current Est.

qtr. qtr. EPS Reported

sales %chg. profits %chg. (8/13) EPS Diff.

TECHNOLOGY 42,274.1 +6 -1,613.7 NM 0.67 -0.55 -1.22

ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES 356.7 +23 49.1 +188 0.30 0.51 +0.21

APPLE COMPUTER** 1,767.7 +17 97.6 +20 0.90 0.81 -0.09

COMPAQ COMPUTER 1,067.1 +50 49.4 NM 0.46 0.61 +0.15

CONNER PERIPHERALS 625.5 +58 41.9 +141 0.61 0.79 +0.18

DIGITAL EQUIPMENT* 3,314.3 +1 -260.5 NM -1.28 -2.04 -0.76

GENENTECH 137.3 +2 7.7 -43 0.03 0.07 +0.04

HONEYWELL 1,550.0 +4 176.0 +123 1.24 2.54 +1.30

IBM 14,702.0 +2 -2,778.0 NM 1.07 -4.87 -5.94

INTEL 1,426.2 +20 240.8 +19 1.04 1.12 +0.08

LOTUS DEVELOPMENT 206.7 -6 30.1 +40 0.32 0.72 +0.40

MICROSOFT* 818.0 +41 209.0 +45 0.68 0.70 +0.02

MOTOROLA 3,396.0 +24 129.0 +39 0.96 0.97 +0.01

POLAROID 514.1 +8 27.7 -95 0.48 0.59 +0.11

RAYTHEON 2,214.0 -1 156.1 +5 1.24 1.16 -0.08

TANDY* 1,160.1 +10 32.1 -23 0.30 0.40 +0.10

TEXAS INSTRUMENTS 1,892.0 +11 57.0 NM 0.59 0.58 -0.01

TRW 2,020.0 +7 49.0 +53 0.77 0.77 --

UNISYS 2,067.5 +5 58.3 NM 0.13 0.17 +0.04

WESTINGHOUSE ELECTRIC 3,039.0 -11 14.0 NM 0.41 0.00 -0.41

Current Current Est.

qtr. qtr. EPS Reported

sales %chg. profits %chg. (8/13) EPS Diff.

UTILITIES & TELECOM. 35,181.9 +2 3,539.4 0 0.82 0.78 -0.04

AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER 1,282.0 -1 123.3 -17 0.79 0.58 -0.21

AMERITECH 2,813.2 +4 330.5 -13 1.21 1.23 +0.02

BELL ATLANTIC 3,167.0 0 392.9 +19 0.81 0.91 +0.10

BELLSOUTH 3,736.0 +3 385.6 +9 0.81 0.78 -0.03

CENTEL 299.8 +2 11.5 -60 0.16 0.13 -0.03

COMMONWEALTH EDISON 1,708.9 -12 235.9 -35 1.54 1.02 -0.52

GTE 4,965.0 +2 500.0 +9 0.54 0.55 +0.01

MCI COMMUNICATIONS 2,682.0 +11 154.0 +16 0.56 0.58 +0.02

NYNEX 3,324.7 +2 319.7 +10 1.59 1.55 -0.04

PACIFIC TELESIS 2,512.0 +1 277.0 +1 0.74 0.70 -0.04

PUBLIC SERVICE ENT. GROUP 1,249.3 -1 138.1 -18 0.79 0.59 -0.20

SCECORP 2,550.0 +13 272.3 +10 1.36 1.22 -0.14

SPRINT 2,330.4 +5 115.2 +19 0.47 0.52 +0.05

US WEST 2,561.7 -2 283.4 +5 0.72 0.69 -0.03

NA=not available

NM=not meaningful

* First-quarter results

** Fourth-quarter results

DATA: STANDARD & POOR'S COMPUSTAT SERVICES INC., INSTITUTIONAL BROKERS ESTIMATE

SYSTEM, BW


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