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Business Outlook


NAPM SURVEY Monday, June 1, 10 a.m.

The National Association of Purchasing Management's index of business activity probably increased to 54% in May, from 51.3% in April.

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING Monday, June 1, 10 a.m.

Construction outlays likely rose by 0.2% in April, after jumping 1.6% in March.

PERSONAL INCOME Monday, June 1, 10 a.m.

Economists surveyed by McGraw-Hill Inc.'s MMS International say personal income likely edged up 0.2% in April, after rising 0.6% in March. Consumer spending probably increased 0.4% in April. In March, buying was up 0.3%.

LEADING INDICATORS Tuesday, June 2, 8:30 a.m.

The government's index of leading indicators probably rose by 0.2% in April, the same small advance as in March.

NEW SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES Tuesday, June 2, 10 a.m.

New homes likely sold at an annual rate of 540,000 in April. Sales plunged 14.8% in March, to a pace of just 513,000.

FACTORY INVENTORIES Wednesday, June 3, 10 a.m.

Manufacturers probably increased their inventories by a small 0.2% in April. That's suggested by a healthy gain in factory output for the month. In March, stock levels were unchanged.

EMPLOYMENT Friday, June 5, 8:30 a.m.

The MMS forecast calls for a 108,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls in May. That's slightly less than the 126,000 jobs added in April, but two healthy back-to-back increases in jobs would be a sure sign that this recovery is here to stay. The jobless rate likely stayed at 7.2% in May.


The level of consumer credit probably changed little in April, after falling $1.6 billion in March, says the MMS report.KATHLEEN MADIGAN

The Aging of Abercrombie & Fitch
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