Why You Might Want to Borrow Now
The Fed's rate cut and the slowing economy make it a buyer's market
Have you taken your banker to lunch lately?
Many entrepreneurs have been so flush in the last few years that they
haven't had to hit up their banks, relying on internal cash flow to finance
their expansions. But with the international financial crisis finally
dragging on the U.S. economy, margins are under pressure for small, cutting-edge
companies, and they are turning increasingly to banks for financing, a PriceWaterhouseCoopers survey of 446 high-growth companies
shows.
That's a trend that's likely to continue, especially with U.S. monetary
policy loosening up for the first time since January, 1996. On Tuesday, Sept. 29,
the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark Federal funds target rate by a 0.25 percentage
point, to 5.25%.
The PWC study shows that the percentage of companies applying for loans
has climbed steadily all year -- to 28% in the second quarter from 24% in
the last quarter of 1997.
Why? Pete Collins, director of entrepreneurial advisory services at
PWC, says figures from his survey paint a picture of companies with less
disposable cash -- and thus a need for more borrowing to finance their expansions.
Among the companies surveyed, which were selected for their high rate of
growth, a net 18% said gross margins were increasing, compared with 24% in the
first quarter of the year. High-tech companies, in particular, says
Collins, "have been feeling the squeeze for a longer period of time than
their non-tech counterparts, and they have turned to bank borrowing."
HEALTHY VIEW. Some bankers say the PWC study doesn't quite reflect the
small-business panorama as they see it. Company execs may just be
opportunistic. "For so long, the economy has been doing well, and
companies have been profitable and didn't have to borrow on their credit
lines," says Elaine A. McMahon, senior vice-president in charge of small-business lending for Comerica Bank. "Many are taking the opportunity,
with rates being at lower levels, to get capital expansion loans, mortgage
loans, and some fixed-term loans."
Michael R. James, executive vice-president for Wells Fargo small-business
banking group, says the Asian crisis is having the opposite effect from
what the PWC study implies. His technology-company customers cut back on
borrowing when the Asian crisis began hurting their clients. "As volume
slows down for them, they tend to shrink their balance sheet. They reduce
inventory and collect receivables, and they actually have more cash," James
says.
The paradox is that even in a slowing economy -- usually a poor time
to borrow -- banks will likely be eager to lend, and terms will be attractive,
especially if the Fed keeps cutting rates. That's a notion
supported by a broader study of small-business lending by Veribanc Inc.,
a bank-monitoring company in Woburn, Mass. The study shows that overall
small-business lending was virtually stagnant in the year ended June 30,
after growing by double digits the previous year. "On the demand side,
fewer people are asking for loans," says Warren Heller, Veribanc's research
director. Meanwhile, "all the data and the signals we read is that banks
are not tightening their credit policies," he adds.
Come to think of it, maybe your banker should take you to lunch.
By Jeremy Quittner in New York
jeremy_quittner@businessweek.com
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