Viewpoint October 30, 2009, 11:00AM EST

Who to Watch to Gauge the Recovery

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Rupert Murdoch, Chairman and CEO, News Corporation (NWS). Murdoch heads the second largest news organization in the world and owns hundreds of publishers, newspapers, magazines, TV, and radio stations, such as The Wall Street Journal, HarperCollins, and Fox TV. More important, his network brought Family Guy into my home, and for that I'll be eternally grateful. But my business is also exposed to the messaging his company puts out about world events, the economy, and the politicians who control the economy. A man with that much power in the media can influence decisions that trickle down to us all.

Ryan Howard, First Baseman, Philadelphia Phillies. It seems like every time this guy hits a home run, the Phillies wind up winning another game. And 20% of my employees' productivity goes down the toilet the next morning talking about it. If the Phillies win the World Series again it could kill what's left of my 2009 profits! But I'll still be at the parade.

Max Baucus, U.S. Senator (D-Mont.) and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Finance. Senator Baucus' health-care bill, working its way through Congress, may include penalties for small business owners who exceed a certain payroll threshold but don't provide health-care plans to their employees. Or maybe not. Depends on what day it is. Confused? Join the crowd. Short of taxes, health insurance is one of our biggest expenses. And Senator Baucus is going to have a big say as to how much that expense will be for me. Whatever it may be.

Tim Geithner, Secretary of the Treasury, and Ben Bernanke, Chairman, Federal Reserve. Geithner's reforms on Wall Street and our banking system have an impact on the financing available for my business and the ending balance on my mutual fund statements each month. Bernanke controls the money supply, our interest rates and inflation rates, and the liquidity necessary to avoid any more stock market crashes. Between them, these two have almost as much power over me as the guy who heads programming at ESPN. Please guys, don't let us down. I've gotta put my kids through college soon!

Mike Duke, CEO, Wal-Mart Stores. As the guy who runs the world's largest retailer, Duke has a lot of control over what people pay. And this year he plans on driving home the company's mission of "saving people money so they can live better." That's great for consumers. But it puts a ton of pressure on their suppliers and creates havoc for their competition. For every penny that Wal-Mart (WMT) haggles from a supplier, one of my customers is seeing less on his bottom line.

Michelle Obama, First Lady. This one's easy. Every married guy knows who the real decision maker is. Think the President is any different?

These people's actions may lead us out of this recession or cause us to slip back into one. I don't know them. And I certainly can't control them. All I can do is respond to their decisions as best as I can. And keep hoping that Tom DeLay will make it back for next season.

Gene Marks, CPA, is the owner of the Marks Group, which sells customer relationship, service, and financial management tools to small and midsize businesses. Marks is the author of four best-selling small business books and writes the popular "Penny Pincher's Almanac" syndicated column. He frequently speaks to business groups on penny-pinching topics. More penny-pinching advice from Marks can be found at www.quickerbetterwiser.com.