The Perils of Market Research

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5. If you blindly follow the research, you'll lose.

Swedish Vodka? Can't happen. Vodka is Russian.

Yep, research said that Absolut (PDRDY) would flop. Instead, it radically changed the spirits industry.

In a 2001 column, World magazine publisher Joel Belz called relying too much on research "the fallacy of false precision." Precision is what Ford (F) was seeking when it famously passed on launching the minivan. Hal Sperlich, who ended up taking the concept to Chrysler, recounted in a 1994 Fortune article that Ford balked because research couldn't prove there was a market for such an unprecedented vehicle. "In 10 years of developing the minivan we never once got a letter from a housewife asking us to invent one." Call it a hunch, call it intuition or insight, call it whatever—Sperlich and his team were correct, regardless of what the research said (or didn't say).

As is animated movie studio Pixar (DIS), time after time, as it churns out one hit after another. Andrew Stanton, director of Finding Nemo and WALL-E, admitted in a 2008 Wall Street Journal column, "We selfishly make movies for ourselves that happen to be juvenile enough that they cover the kids' interests.We've learned to trust our own instincts about what we like and not rely on, or trust, what the outside world tells us is going to work." Apple's (AAPL) Steve Jobs is cut from the same cloth."We do no market research," Jobs told Fortune in a 2008 interview. "We just want to make great products." I think he has proven his approach works.

The bottom line? Market research is a compass, not a map—it can give you a sense of where you are, but it can't tell you where to go. Measure to guide, don't measure to lead, and when you do talk to customers, remember you can't always go through the front door—sometimes you have to sneak in through a window to find out what they really think. Figuratively speaking, of course.

I'm a big fan of market research. But only research done right. Bang & Olufsen, BMW, and Apple are among the most innovative companies on earth, yet they refuse to be slaves to a spreadsheet. So should we all.

Steve McKee is president of McKee Wallwork Cleveland Advertising and author of the book When Growth Stalls: How It Happens, Why You're Stuck, and What to Do About It. Find him on Twitter @WhenGrowthStall and LinkedIn.

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