Ask My Wife About the Next Recession

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Follow the Bling

My wife, like most women, gets sick and tired of the screaming kids, intrusive neighbors, and overall monotony of the day. So I do what other guys do when they want to treat their wives like a queen: I take her on vacation to the Jersey Shore. That way our kids can still scream, the neighbors can still be intrusive, and the day will still be monotonous… but at least there's an ocean in the background (and good pizza nearby). Apparently, my wife's not the only one making these demands. Traffic Volume Trends, an index from the Federal Highway Administration, has been creeping back up again. This is a monthly report based on traffic data from about 4,000 locations nationwide. More traffic each month means more trucks on the road delivering goods, and more vacations. That's a good thing. Even if you're going to the Jersey Shore. A decline in this barometer may spell trouble for the economy ahead.

Finally, what does my wife want the most? Why, more bling, of course. I'm talking about jewelry and clothes. When the economy's good, she's out shopping. When things are tight, she does without. Well, all indications are that the economy's improving. But don't pay attention to those retail sales statistics you're hearing on the evening news. Instead, pay close attention to the source: the raw materials that go into these goods. Check out the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index (DJP). That's on the way up, too. This index is composed of future contracts on a bunch of commodities that make up the backbone of my wife's wish list, like gold, silver, and cotton. A decline probably indicates that women are holding back. Now, that's a potential financial crisis.

See what I mean? There are better indicators for keeping an eye on the economy than silly things like GDP, inflation, and interest. Smart guys who run their own businesses know this. The economists have proven that they don't know what they're talking about. But the women? Oh, they know! That why I'm keeping a close eye on my wife. I've learned her spending habits mean far more than any forecast from the Federal Reserve.

Gene Marks, CPA, is the owner of the Marks Group, which sells customer relationship, service, and financial management tools to small and midsize businesses. Marks is the author of four best-selling small business books and writes the popular "Penny Pincher's Almanac" syndicated column. He frequently speaks to business groups on penny-pinching topics. More penny-pinching advice from Marks can be found at www.quickerbetterwiser.com.

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