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"It's a gutsy move," says Jim McAndrew, group manager for electronics and analysis research and development at Air Liquide, one of our customers. "With cavity ring-down, you either win big or you lose big." It's the final night of the SEMICON West trade show, the semiconductor industry's annual blowout, and Jim has joined us for dinner at Postrio, a top San Francisco restaurant, to talk about our goals and plans to advance laser-based analysis.
The place is packed as everyone celebrates the industry's fantastic upswing after a severe two-year downturn. Four of my staff members, here to work the show, are beat. After four nights of serving show attendees, the wait staff is grouchy. Jim and I talk laser-based analysis, where fine distinctions between techniques make a major difference. Gutsy? I take a bite of exquisite fish. Desperate is more the word.
I latched onto cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS) -- which uses lasers to detect moisture or contaminants in manufacturing processes -- in a bid to replace our mature core technology, developed in the 1950s. Now, CRDS, which was patented by Princeton University, appears to be all we've hoped for -- and more. It lends itself to a wide range of applications, from breath analysis for diabetes, asthma, and drug overdoses, to detection of contaminants in ultrahigh-purity gases used for semiconductor manufacturing. With proper support, MEECO's sales could grow from more than $5 million to 10 times that over the next 3 years.
NO MORE PHANTOMS. Anything this good, and you've got a highly charged, competitive market. When I walked into Postrio, I was surprised to see yet another emerging competitor seated with his large staff at the table beside ours. I smiled, he scowled. At last year's SEMICON, his company held a private viewing of their new laser-based technology, which relies on a different technique than ours, for select customers. It was due for release in January but got delayed along the way. They were all over our booth when we debuted the prototype MTO-1000, our new CRDS device.
Now we better deliver. Before the show, I warned my small technical crew: "Once we exhibit, we're committed. The market is sick of phantom technology." Indeed, with all the hype, some customers have gotten cynical about lasers. So now we're on notice to meet our stated goal of introduction before Dec. 31, and the competition will be hell-bent on beating us to it.
A week after SEMICON, "gutsy" comes up again in a less flattering context. Our director of laser analysis, Wen-Bin Yan, and I are at Turnberry Isle, Fla., where he addresses a technical meeting on "Detection of Trace Impurities in Gases". I love swimming in the big, warm pool, and without its beneficial effects, I might be more perturbed by the reaction we receive from a group of scientists from the National Institute for Standards & Technology.
They've been developing CRDS as a national standard for moisture analysis, which I consider rather a plus for us. But another branch of NIST granted several million dollars to our only known competitor working with CRDS, a new Stanford University spin-off. They now have a budget more than 10 times greater than ours.
UNFORGIVING. Nonetheless, it appears we may be first to market. (It's about time. With our Princeton partner, we've been working at CRDS for a half-dozen years.) "Your commercializing CRDS is pretty gutsy," says one of the NIST guys. "But don't you think you're going to set it back for everyone if you rush something out there?"
I assure him that we have no intention of introducing technology that is not thoroughly tested at customer beta sites as well as by independent labs. Later, I wonder why he thinks we would elect to jeopardize our own reputation, let alone CRDS. This is not a business known for forgiveness.
Back at the plant, we still face many hurdles to commercialization. Twice a week, we review progress. Today, Wen-Bin says the best we can detect is one part-per-billion.
"It's a half a ppb," I remind him -- the detection point we've agreed on. One ppb may be acceptable to the market today. But as the semiconductor industry moves to unbelievably tiny, capability-packed chips, even tighter performance specifications will be needed.
"Then we need better mirrors," says Wen-Bin. With CRDS, the light bounces between two highly reflective mirrors, traversing a path-length of some 100 kilometers within a meter-long cell.
"The vendor can't guarantee better mirrors," Bob Augustine, our electrical engineer, reminds him.
"Then make the cell longer."
"No," I say. The unit already has a big backside, extending 32 inches -- more than twice the 15-inch depth of our standard Tracer unit.
The engineers jump in with their ideas.
Time is running out. Market expectations aren't all we have to consider. This month, three prospective investors are coming in to check out the technology. The stakes keep going up. We've got to make our delivery date with a quality product. And we will, if I have anything to say about it. Then again, I'm not a scientist. Just gutsy.
I'd love to hear from you. Send me a quick note with your reaction to the column. And come back in two weeks.
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Before joining MEECO in 1983, Lisa Bergson worked as a business journalist at Business Week and freelanced for many business publications. She
received a Masters in Journalism from New York University and received Columbia University's Walter Bagehot Fellowship for economics and business
journalism. You can visit her company's web site at www.meeco.com, or contact her at lbergson@meeco.com.
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