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Due for a Breather?

By Paul Cherney I have an equity model which predicted after the close of trading Jan. 3 that if the total trading volume for the Nasdaq on Jan. 4 was 2.27 billion shares or higher, the odds would increase for some sideways consolidation (lasting one or two days). As of 4:03 pm EST on Jan. 4, the total trading volume for the Nasdaq was 2.16 billion (pretty close to 2.27 billion).

The same overnight system produced a number for NYSE total trading volume for Jan. 4 of 1.55 billion. As of 4:03 pm EST on that day, the reported NYSE trading volume was 1.51 billion (once again, pretty close). So I can't rule out a day or two of consolidation. Downside risk appears limited, though.

There is a real potential for a price pattern similar to the following to unwind: a positive bias into the middle of January, then some consolidation, then another lift in prices starting in the beginning of February. That upswing could run out of momentum and lead to a more concerted bout of profit-taking.

The Nasdaq has immediate resistance with prints in the 2061-2106 range; there is a focus of resistance at 2067-2074.

Immediate support for the Nasdaq is 2054-2045, then 2031-2014.

This market wants to believe in the upside.

The Nasdaq has well defined intermediate term chart support (I am looking at weekly bars here) at 1965-1853.

The S&P 500 has intermediate term "brick wall" resistance in the 1153-1206 range. The index has a focus of resistance at 1165-1173. Immediate support is at 1159-1150. Cherney is market analyst for Standard & Poor's

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