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India’s Rupee Poised for Best Week This Month on Stock Inflows

November 29, 2012

India’s rupee headed for its first weekly gain since October as Moody’s Investors Service maintained its stable outlook on the nation’s credit rating and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised local shares to overweight.

Moody’s said Nov. 26 that the Baa3 ranking, the lowest investment grade, is supported by economic growth and investment that’s more than emerging-market averages. The outlook for Asia’s third-largest economy is improving, Goldman Sachs said in a report yesterday. The global economy is in the best shape in 18 months, according to the latest Bloomberg Global Poll of investors released this week.

“Sentiment seems to have turned for the rupee,” said J. Moses Harding, executive vice president at IndusInd Bank Ltd. in Mumbai. “There have been positives late in the month.”

The rupee advanced 1.8 percent this week to 54.5250 per dollar as of 9:36 a.m. in Mumbai, paring its loss in November to 1.3 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The monthly drop is the sharpest among the 10 most-traded Asian currencies excluding the yen. The currency strengthened 0.6 percent today.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in exchange-rates used to price options, rose 41 basis points, or 0.41 percentage point, this week to 9.91 percent. The rate climbed 46 basis points today, paring its monthly increase to 11 basis points.

Growth Outlook

Foreign funds bought $247 million more Indian stocks than they sold in the first two days of this week, taking monthly inflows to $1.3 billion, exchange data show.

India’s $1.8 trillion economy probably expanded 5.3 percent in the three months through September, according to the median of 42 estimates in a Bloomberg survey before data due around 11 a.m. today. That would match the pace in the first quarter that was the slowest since the three months through March 2009. IndusInd predicts the central bank will begin lowering its benchmark repurchase rate next year and Goldman said growth will pick up to 6.5 percent in 2013 from 5.4 percent this year.

Three-month onshore rupee forwards were at 55.38 per dollar, compared with 55.75 yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Offshore non-deliverable contracts were at 55.39 versus 55.78. Forwards are agreements to buy or sell assets at a set price and date. Non-deliverable contracts are settled in dollars.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeanette Rodrigues in Mumbai at

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Regan at

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