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EU Carbon Permits Gain as Barclays Raises 2013 Price Forecast

October 11, 2012

European Union carbon permits gained 1.2 percent as Barclays Plc increased its price forecast for the allowances next year by 13 percent, citing EU plans to delay auctioning some allowances from 2013.

EU permits for delivery in December rose 9 cents to 7.81 euros ($10.10) a metric ton on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices next year in the bloc’s carbon market will average 8.50 euros a ton, up from a prediction of 7.50 euros previously, Trevor Sikorski, an analyst at the bank in London, said today in a report.

“We maintain our forecast that 700 million tons will be back-ended but assume that 60 percent of those volumes are taken out of 2013,” Sikorski said. “We now assume the volumes only come back in from 2018 onwards.”

The European Commission, the bloc’s regulator, is seeking to delay some supply of permits to boost carbon prices, which fell to a record 5.99 euros on April 4. The market had a glut of 950 million permits at the end of 2011, and this surplus is “growing fast,” Jos Delbeke, Director General for Climate at the European Commission, said in Brussels on Sept. 26.

United Nations carbon offsets for December advanced 1.7 percent to 1.77 euros a ton on ICE Futures Europe.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alessandro Vitelli in London at

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lars Paulsson at

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