http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2005-12-06/the-stars-align-for-oil-drillers

The STARS Align for Oil Drillers


By Sam Stovall The industries in my High Momentum List -- consisting of those S&P 1500 subindustry indexes with trailing 12-month price performances that are in the top 10% of all 123 subindustries in the S&P Composite 1500 Index -- hasn't seen much turnover recently, or at least not enough to offer me an effortless way to identify industries to write about on a weekly basis. Therefore, every so often, I go out searching for other industries to highlight. This time, I've decided to seek a little help from the STARS.

No, I'm not an astrologer. I'm talking about S&P's Stock Appreciation Ranking System, or STARS, in which S&P's 66 U.S. equity research analysts establish buy, hold, and sell recommendations on more than 1,500 stocks for the coming 12 months. A stock with 5 STARS is ranked strong buy, while 3 STARS means hold, and 1 STARS indicates strong sell. (See the glossary and disclosure statement at the end of this report for a more complete description.)

MERGING METRICS. I decided to combine industries' market-cap weighted average STARS ranking along with our 12-month

Relative Strength Ranking (RSR) metric. The list below shows the 10 top industries, based on two criteria:

1. The trailing 12-month RSR has to be in the top 30%, as indicated by an RSR score of 4 or 5

2. The industry's market-cap weighted average STARS has to be above the average of 3.7 for all stocks in the S&P 1500.

S&P 1500 Sub-Industry

RSR

STARS

Biotechnology

4

4.5

Distillers & Vintners

4

4.1

Integrated Oil & Gas

4

4.9

Investment Banking & Brokerage

4

3.8

Managed Health Care

5

4.5

Oil & Gas Drilling

5

3.9

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

5

3.9

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

5

4.7

Tobacco

4

3.9

Water Utilities

5

3.9

When I saw the list, one thing jumped out at me right away: Oil and gas groups remain favorites from a fundamental and momentum standpoint. To find out why, I checked with the S&P analyst who follows one of the energy groups on the list: Stewart Glickman, S&P's oil- and gas-drilling analyst.

According to Glickman, S&P's fundamental outlook for the oil- and gas-drilling subindustry is positive. S&P's outlook is based on anticipated favorable industry conditions and its view that capital spending will remain high, particularly in international regions with low-cost drilling opportunities.

DAYRATES GOING UP. Onshore North America, which has seen a marked increase in rig activity over the past 18 months, is witnessing a scarcity of available equipment, which should bolster dayrates (the sum paid to a drilling contractor for each 24 hours of operation under contract), says Glickman, although the pace of new land rig construction appears to be accelerating.

In the Gulf of Mexico, S&P expects an uptick in dayrates based mainly on tight supply, which has been exacerbated by severe damage to 11 mobile drilling rigs caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and which should be heightened over the next three months as seven additional rigs are mobilized out of the Gulf to international regions, more than offsetting two other rigs that are returning to the Gulf shortly. Markets for semisubmersible rigs (floating offshore drilling units whose pontoons and columns, when flooded, cause the unit to submerge to a predetermined depth) continue to improve, with recent contracts at extremely high dayrates.

Internationally, supply/demand fundamentals appear to S&P to be very strong in West Africa, Southeast Asia, and the North Sea, where Glickman thinks demand could exceed supply by mid-2006 for both jackups (mobile offshore drilling rigs) and semisubmersibles. An expected influx of jackup rigs to the Middle East should mitigate some of the surplus demand in that region to some extent, but S&P sees potential for further demand increases there.

HOT DRILLS. Over the longer term, S&P expects demand for contract drilling to increase. In the U.S., Glickman believes high field depletion rates and increasing demand for natural gas will continue to support healthy drilling activity both on- and offshore. Internationally, S&P expects additional spending by major oil companies, as well as by state-owned ones, to be the main growth driver as they continue to search for low-cost drilling opportunities, mainly in new regions around the world.

The number of rigs either under construction or on order has increased to about 58, including 43 jackups, although only 11 of those are slated for delivery by early 2007 -- and some of them do not yet have contracts in place. However, some of these rigs are being built without contract commitments in place, so it remains to be seen how quickly they will become operational.

Energy prices should remain elevated, which should support drilling activity, in S&P's view. As of early December, forecasting outfit Global Insight projected West Texas Intermediate oil prices averaging $56 per barrel in 2006, with Henry Hub natural gas prices averaging $9.34 per million British thermal units.

So there you have it. In S&P's view, the subindustry's price momentum still looks healthy, while the 12-month fundamental outlook also looks appealing.

Industry Momentum List Update

For regular readers of the Sector Watch column, here is this week's list of the industries in the S&P 1500 with Relative Strength Rankings of "5" (price performances in the past 12 months that were among the top 10% of the industries in the S&P 1500) as of December 2, 2005.

Subindustry

Construction & Engineering

Construction Materials

Diversified Metals & Mining

Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Health Care Services

Homebuilding

Managed Health Care

Oil & Gas Drilling

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Water Utilities

Glossary

S&P STARS: Since January 1, 1987, Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services has ranked a universe of common stocks based on a given stock's potential for future performance. Under proprietary STARS (STock Appreciation Ranking System), S&P equity analysts rank stocks according to their individual forecast of a stock's future capital appreciation potential vs. the expected performance of a relevant benchmark (e.g., a regional index (S&P Asia 50 Index, S&P Europe 350 Index or S&P 500 Index), based on a 12-month time horizon. STARS was designed to meet the needs of investors looking to put their investment decisions in perspective.

S&P Earnings & Dividend Rank (also known as S&P Quality Rank): Growth and stability of earnings and dividends are deemed key elements in establishing S&P's earnings and dividend rankings for common stocks, which are designed to capsulize the nature of this record in a single symbol. It should be noted, however, that the process also takes into consideration certain adjustments and modifications deemed desirable in establishing such rankings. The final score for each stock is measured against a scoring matrix determined by analysis of the scores of a large and representative sample of stocks. The range of scores in the array of this sample has been aligned with the following ladder of rankings:

A+

Highest

B

Lower

A

High

C

Lowest

A-

Above Average

D

In Reorganization

B+

Average

NR

Not Ranked

B-

Below Average

S&P Issuer Credit Rating: A Standard & Poor's Issuer Credit Rating is a current opinion of an obligor's overall financial capacity (its creditworthiness) to pay its financial obligations. This opinion focuses on the obligor's capacity and willingness to meet its financial commitments as they come due. It does not apply to any specific financial obligation, as it does not take into account the nature of and provisions of the obligation, its standing in bankruptcy or liquidation, statutory preferences, or the legality and enforceability of the obligation. In addition, it does not take into account the creditworthiness of the guarantors, insurers, or other forms of credit enhancement on the obligation. The Issuer Credit Rating is not a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold a financial obligation issued by an obligor, as it does not comment on market price or suitability for a particular investor. Issuer Credit Ratings are based on current information furnished by obligors or obtained by Standard & Poor's from other sources it considers reliable. Standard & Poor's does not perform an audit in connection with any Issuer Credit Rating and may, on occasion, rely on unaudited financial information. Issuer Credit Ratings may be changed, suspended, or withdrawn as a result of changes in, or unavailability of, such information, or based on other circumstances.

S&P Core Earnings: Standard & Poor's Core Earnings is a uniform methodology for calculating operating earnings, and focuses on a company's after-tax earnings generated from its principal businesses. Included in the Standard & Poor's definition are employee stock option grant expenses, pension costs, restructuring charges from ongoing operations, write-downs of depreciable or amortizable operating assets, purchased research and development, M&A related expenses and unrealized gains/losses from hedging activities. Excluded from the definition are pension gains, impairment of goodwill charges, gains or losses from asset sales, reversal of prior-year charges and provision from litigation or insurance settlements.

S&P 12 Month Target Price: The S&P equity analyst's projection of the market price a given security will command 12 months hence, based on a combination of intrinsic, relative, and private market valuation metrics.

Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services: Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services U.S. includes Standard & Poor's Investment Advisory Services LLC; Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services Europe includes Standard & Poor's LLC- London and Standard & Poor's AB (Sweden); Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services Asia includes Standard & Poor's LLC's offices in Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo.

Required Disclosures

In the U.S.

As of September 30, 2005, research analysts at Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services U.S. have recommended 28.7% of issuers with buy recommendations, 60.3% with hold recommendations and 11.0% with sell recommendations.

In Europe

As of September 30, 2005, research analysts at Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services Europe have recommended 34.8% of issuers with buy recommendations, 44.8% with hold recommendations and 20.4% with sell recommendations.

In Asia

As of September 30, 2005, research analysts at Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services Asia have recommended 28.1% of issuers with buy recommendations, 51.1% with hold recommendations and 20.8% with sell recommendations.

Globally

As of September 30, 2005, research analysts at Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services globally have recommended 29.3% of issuers with buy recommendations, 57.7% with hold recommendations and 13.0% with sell recommendations.

5-STARS (Strong Buy): Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a relevant benchmark, by a wide margin over the coming 12 months, with shares rising in price on an absolute basis.

4-STARS (Buy): Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, with shares rising in price on an absolute basis.

3-STARS (Hold): Total return is expected to closely approximate the total return of a relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, with shares generally rising in price on an absolute basis.

2-STARS (Sell): Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, and the share price is not anticipated to show a gain.

1-STARS (Strong Sell): Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a relevant benchmark by a wide margin over the coming 12 months, with shares falling in price on an absolute basis.

Relevant benchmarks: in the U.S. the relevant benchmark is the S&P 500 Index, in Europe the S&P Europe 350 Index and in Asia the S&P Asia 50 Index.

For All Regions:

All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of analyst compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

Additional information is available upon request to Standard & Poor's, 55 Water Street, NY, NY.

Other Disclosures

This report has been prepared and issued by Standard & Poor's and/or one of its affiliates. In the United States, research reports are prepared by Standard & Poor's Investment Advisory Services LLC ("SPIAS"). In the United States, research reports are issued by Standard & Poor's ("S&P"), in the United Kingdom by Standard & Poor's LLC ("S&P LLC"), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority; in Hong Kong by Standard & Poor's LLC which is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities Futures Commission, in Singapore by Standard & Poor's LLC, which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore; in Japan by Standard & Poor's LLC, which is regulated by the Kanto Financial Bureau; and in Sweden by Standard & Poor's AB ("S&P AB").

The research and analytical services performed by SPIAS, S&P LLC and S&P AB are each conducted separately from any other analytical activity of Standard & Poor's.

Disclaimers

This material is based upon information that Standard & Poor's considers to be reliable, but neither S&P nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. With respect to reports issued by S&P LLC-Japan and in the case of inconsistencies between the English and Japanese version of a report, the English version prevails. Neither S&P LLC nor S&P guarantees the accuracy of the translation. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute Standard & Poor's judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Neither S&P nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue. Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested. Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate. Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor. The information contained in this report does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to you. Before acting on any recommendation in this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

For residents of the U.K.: This report is only directed at and should only be relied on by persons outside of the United Kingdom or persons who are inside the United Kingdom and who have professional experience in matters relating to investments or who are high net worth persons, as defined in Article 19(5) or Article 49(2) (a) to (d) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001, respectively.

Readers should note that opinions derived from technical analysis might differ from those of Standard & Poor's fundamental recommendations.

Stovall is chief investment strategist for Standard & Poor's


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