Bloomberg Anywhere Remote Login Bloomberg Terminal Demo Request


Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world.


Financial Products

Enterprise Products


Customer Support

  • Americas

    +1 212 318 2000

  • Europe, Middle East, & Africa

    +44 20 7330 7500

  • Asia Pacific

    +65 6212 1000


Industry Products

Media Services

Follow Us


Crisis, Response, Improvement, Complacency, Repeat

I cant help feeling reminded of what our veteran Japan expert Robert Feldman has dubbed the CRIC-cycle, which typically goes through four stages Crisis, Response, Improvement, Complacency before morphing into the next crisis. Japan has gone through several such cycles over the past two decades, and I worry that we have now arrived in the complacency stage of the euro areas first big one.

–Joachim Fels, Complacency Rules?, Morgan Stanley Economics, 4 March 2012, 3:31 am.

So much for Response and Improvement.

Dr. Fels is worried. So, too, is Charles Wyplosz. Do I have your attention?

Greece went repetitively record-wide last week. Portugal repeated contagion-on/contagion-off days. The unreal real economy of some-of-Europe implodes, bringing repeated forecasts of nominal (Nominal!) wage deflation.

In the battle-scarred turret that is Bloomberg Surveillance and Ken Prewitt’s Bloomberg The First Word, we are “Europed” out.

However, we are not complacent. You should not be, either.

Who is? Per Dr. Feldman’s CRIC theory, it is the politicians. This is a critical week but we have all said that repeatedly.

Repeat after me: Watch the markets more than usual this week. Stay attuned to your trusted sources. Ignore the Red Sox. And get set for…CRICR. Crisis, Response, Improvement, Complacency, Repeat. Discuss.

Keene hosts Bloomberg Surveillance 7-10 a.m. ET on 1130 AM in the New York metro area and nationally on SiriusXM 113.
More News: Europe Charles Wyplosz

blog comments powered by Disqus