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| JUNE 10, 2003 SPECIAL REPORT: THE SOCIAL WEB
At There, which is basically a virtual place for hanging out, a human assumes an online identity -- an avatar. For instance, Tate runs a clothing design business at There, whereas in reality she's starting a film production company. Visitors can chat while adopting the persona of a cartoon-like character that talks by spouting bubbles or by using voice-over-Internet-protocol (VoIP) to speak to another person. An avatar can raise an eyebrow, plant a kiss on another avatar, or throw daggers at the other character. The idea is to simply spend time together: playing paintball wars, driving around in hovercraft, visiting waterfalls, or talking. Tate, 26, a beta tester on the site, which is expected to go live later this year, says she's finally getting to know other people. She has already made one offline friend at There, whom she now meets twice a month for lunch. LINKING UP. Call it the Social Web. Through the dot-com bubble and bust, one trend has never wavered. Every year, millions more people around the world are using the Internet to interact in more ways than ever before -- to date, find old classmates, check on medical ailments and cures, to read and express alternative views of the news, and even to get live sales help online. It's happening at work as well: Want to check your 401(k), pay stub, or file an expense account? Increasingly, that's all on the Web. And these new trends complement some long-standing ones: Some 53 million Americans -- one in six -- now visit a chat room every month, according to market researcher Nielsen/Net Ratings, up from one in 10 in 2001, according to tech consultancy Forrester Research. E-mail is now the most popular online activity for 93% of some 4,431 Web regulars surveyed by Net consultancy Jupiter Research last September. Moreover, entrepreneurs are once again investing in ideas aimed at improving online communication. Over the past two years, "there has been a significant shift from e-commerce to rediscovering e-communications," says David Silver, director of the Resource Center for Cyberculture Studies at the University of Washington in Seattle. For subscribers seeking love on dating sites such as Yahoo! Personals, video and voice greetings can now be posted. And in the future, "the distinction between talking on the phone and watching movies and playing games will become blurred," predicts Nolan Bushnell, the gaming guru who in 1972 founded Atari, which made the first commercial video-arcade game, Pong. Bushnell, who's considered the father of computer entertainment, believes that eventually all types of media will combine to create a completely new communication experience via the Web. That will change everything from online shopping to dating to teleconferencing. VOICE OVER PALM. The shift Silver cites already reflects to a significant degree major advances in Web technology. Just 12 months ago, Wi-Fi, which allows for fast, wireless Internet access, didn't even exist in the public consciousness. Today, an estimated 4 million people worldwide use the technology to connect to the Web -- and each other -- from just about anywhere, a number that's expected to grow to 63.3 million by 2007, according to market consultancy Gartner. In late June or early July, handheld maker Palm (PALM ) will release software that lets users of its new Tungsten C personal digital assistant make phone calls via Wi-Fi networks to other Wi-Fi-enabled devices -- such as the latest generation of phones from the likes of networking giant Cisco (CSCO ). A month or so after that, Palm will release special software that allows those same people to make calls to any mobile or regular phone. They'll simply open their buddy list, click on the icon of the person they wish to call via a Wi-Fi connection, and the PDA's software will take care of the rest, explains Paul Osborne, a senior product manager at Palm. That's a smart move, because voice-over-Wi-Fi and VoIP are taking off because both are cheaper than long-distance calling. The market for VoIP services, such as videoconferencing, should grow from $46 million in 2001 to as much as $36.5 billion by 2008, predicts think tank Allied Business Intelligence in Oyster Bay, N.Y. LOCATION-BASED I.M. At the same time, the Internet is spawning a broader convergence of voice and data. Internet service provider Earthlink (ELNK ) is developing a follow-me Net service, which it expects to introduce within the next two years. One feature: When customers shut down their desktops, the software would immediately redirect all e-mail to their PDAs or cell phones. When they open the door to their home, the software would redirect the same material to their home network, says Mike Lunsford, Earthlink's executive vice-president for customer experience. Many other outfits are also focusing on improving today's communications tools. On June 10, startup Trepia in Fremont, Calif., released its latest version of something called location-based instant messaging. The software uses a PC's IP address to identify the person's location -- as long as they're connected via technologies such as Wi-FI. Then, it uploads a list of people on the Trepia network onto the computer's buddy list, starting with those located nearby. College students would first see those among the 15,000 Trepia users who live in their dorm, then those living on campus, then those located in the same city, and so on. The software could be used for striking up a conversation or helping a business traveler find other people attending the same conference, says Jawed Karim, Trepia's CEO. The startup plans to offer the service for free and charge for advanced functions such as searching through the buddy list, Karim says. Whether this marginal improvement will gain enough traction for Trepia to prosper is a long shot, however. COOL VIRTUAL THREADS. Marketers see the potential of e-communications to not only flog their brand but also to do online focus groups. The site called There recently signed agreements with jeansmaker Levi Strauss & Co. and athletic-gear giant Nike (NKE ) to market their designs on There's site. Result: A test version of the site now sells a Levi's jeans jacket for avatars for $5. The item has been a hit, according to There -- a good sign for Levi, which is planning to release the jacket in the real world this year. In the future, There could receive a chunk of revenue by providing its corporate partner with aggregate -- as opposed to personal -- data on the demographics of the people who cotton to its brand, says There CEO Tom Melcher. The outfit, which is supported by investors such as Kevin Ryan, CEO of Internet marketer DoubleClick (DCLK ), should launch officially in the third quarter. Over the past four years, illegal swapping of music files has arguably been the greatest form of e-communication. Even as the music industry is building a corral around such activity, however, Microsoft has begun testing a new product that should enable teens to better share music and Web videos -- presumably in a legal manner. Called 3 degrees and available in its test format at threedegrees.com, the service would allow up to 10 friends to chat as a group, compile a common playlist of up to 60 songs, and share photos, says Lisa Gurry, a product manager at Microsoft's MSN portal. Each member would also be able to adopt an identity (in test trials, a green monster -- resembling a dragon with wings -- has been the hands-down favorite). The concept of this group instant message could also be used in the corporate market, analysts say, and increase the "stickiness" of the MSN brand. INFO THAT'S ACTED ON. That's not to overlook the fact that the mere existence of the Web is enriching as it provides a huge diversity of views. Take Web logs, or blogs, which can assume the form of an online diary or a message board (see "The Wild World of 'Open-Source Media'"). What about medical information? Until a few years ago, all most people knew about their ailments or treatments was what they learned from their physician. Now, it's possible at the click of a mouse to get all of that and much, much more -- in some states, even information on doctors' malpractice histories. In the spring of 2002, 60% of respondents to a Pew Internet & American Life poll of 550 Americans said information they found on the Web helped them influence their care. Pew also found that one-third of those surveyed read political information online -- and that half of those said what they learned online affected their votes. "We're still in the toddler stage," says Lee Rainie, the project's director. "People are still relatively passive in using the Web." That will almost certainly change, though, as interaction online lets more opinions filter through. Other advances in communications are also changing e-commerce. New York-based LivePerson (LPSN ) sells software that AT&T (T ), BellSouth (BLS ), and Microsoft are using to help sell products and services, such as DSL (digital subscriber line) broadband Net access. The software analyzes the behavior of a visitor to a shopping site, for instance, to determine when the person might need a salesperson's help. If so, a LivePerson communications box might pop up on a Web page if the customer has kept an item in an online shopping cart for more than five minutes without making the purchase, says Robert LoCascio, LivePerson's CEO and chairman. The popup might ask if the customer would like to talk via instant message (VoIP is coming next) with a live salesperson. "We want to mirror the real-life selling experience," LoCascio says. E-TAILING PUSH? He claims that the software can help a business that serves 5,000 or more online visitors a day increase sales by at least $2 million annually. The product lists for $10,000 per month for a version that allows five customer-service reps to answer queries. Because the reps can multitask -- instant messaging several customers simultaneously, while talking on the phone to yet another -- it costs about $1.20 to answer a customer's question online vs. $6 on the phone, calculates LoCascio. Eventually, LivePerson's pop-up boxes could appear next to search results in search engines, he says. That could lend at least a small push to e-tailing, whose revenues should rise 27% over last year to $95 billion in 2003, according to tech consultancy Forrester Research. Some believe that customer-salesperson communication could improve the Net's commercial potential. About three months ago, LivePerson decided to morph from a customer-relationship-management (CRM) company, which it had been since its public offering in 2000, to an e-communications outfit for corporate clients, says LoCascio. Much of that could be a reflection of the difficulty smaller concerns have now in selling CRM. As consumers and businesses increasingly socialize via the Web, "we'll be the next AT&Ts," LoCascio says of his $8.9 million company -- with perhaps a dose of hyperbole. "There's no value any more in the dial tone." Such a development is still sometime away, since the great majority of consumers usually lag well behind the pace of innovation in communications. Still, the Social Web's evolution will be relentless. During the Internet's early days, many sociologists worried that people would lock themselves out of the real world and recede into a virtual one. MORE TALK, LESS SLEEP. That hasn't happened yet. On the contrary, studies show that e-mail and instant messaging have had no effect on the amount of time people spend communicating via traditional means, says John Robinson, a sociologist at the University of Maryland. People sleep less now -- though that hasn't been scientifically linked to increased communication. The Social Web's ultimate impact is that "a whole generation is growing up without knowing what it's like to live without [the Internet]," says Geoff Ralston, senior vice-president for network services at portal Yahoo! (YHOO ). From 2002 to 2007, the number of U.S. households with access to the Web will rise 33%, to 89 million, Jupiter predicts. And with the new e-communication technologies making talking more fun and interactive, yakking it up should hit an all-time high. By Olga Kharif in Portland, Ore. |
