Bloomberg News

WTI Oil Slips to Two-Week Low as Iraq Output Seen Rising

June 26, 2014

West Texas Intermediate oil dropped to a two-week low and Brent fell on signs that the insurgency in Iraq won’t curb output and as U.S. stockpiles climbed.

Iraq’s crude exports will increase next month, Oil Minister Abdul Kareem al-Luaibi said yesterday. Government forces repelled an attack by the Sunni Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant on the Baiji refinery north of Baghdad. U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 1.74 million barrels to 388.1 million last week, the Energy Information Administration said yesterday.

“Prices are retreating because the insurgency hasn’t had a material impact on the Iraqi production and we might be looking at a gain in exports,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “Prices are consolidating here just below the nine-month highs.”

WTI for August delivery slipped 66 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $105.84 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the lowest settlement since June 11. Futures are up 7.5 percent this year.

Brent for August settlement fell 79 cents, or 0.7 percent, to end the session at $113.21 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was the lowest close since June 16. Prices have increased 2.2 percent this year.

The European benchmark crude’s premium to WTI narrowed to $7.37 from $7.50 yesterday.

Iraq Violence

Iraq’s Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki yesterday rejected calls to relinquish power and allow the formation of a “national salvation” government to counter the militants. The country is the biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries after Saudi Arabia.

Should Iraq Split in Three?

Violence in Iraq spread yesterday to Kirkuk, the northern region’s oil hub, where a car bomb killed at least seven people and wounded 20, according to a police statement. It was the first attack there since Kurdish forces took control of the area two weeks ago after Iraq’s army fled the advance of the ISIL.

“Any potential disruption has already been priced in,” said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “There’s already been a massive spike in prices, which is already causing economic pain for the consumer. People will have a hard time dealing with $4 gasoline or heating oil.”

Gasoline Inventories

U.S. gasoline inventories rose 710,000 barrels to 215 million last week, the fourth straight gain, EIA data showed yesterday. Supplies of distillate fuel climbed 1.18 million barrels to 120.6 million, the highest level since January.

Gasoline futures for July delivery dropped 0.71 cent to settle at $3.0856 a gallon on the Nymex. Ultra low sulfur diesel for July delivery slipped 1.6 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $3.0138, the lowest close since June 16.

The most Americans in seven years will travel by car over the July 4 Independence Day holiday and they’ll be paying the highest fuel prices since 2008, according to a forecast by AAA. Regular gasoline at the pump rose 0.3 cent to an average of $3.684 a gallon yesterday, the highest price since April 30, according to Heathrow, Florida-based AAA, the largest U.S. motoring group.

Refineries operated at 88.5 percent of capacity in the seven days ended June 20, up 1.4 percentage points from the prior week. Operating rates usually increase in late spring and have peaked in July during the past five years.

Refinery Demand

“One reason prices are down is that we’re very close to the peak of the refinery demand season, if we haven’t already reached it,” Schork said. “Demand will slip from this point and there’s plenty of crude here in the U.S.”

Crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI traded on Nymex, increased 416,000 barrels to 21.8 million in the week ended June 20, according to the EIA.

WTI rose 0.4 percent yesterday after the federal government opened the door to more U.S. oil exports. The Commerce Department said June 24 it granted requests from Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (PXD:US) and Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD:US) to classify processed condensates as petroleum products eligible for export.

Producers, refiners and pipeline companies are questioning how much the Obama administration has relaxed its position. The U.S. has prohibited most crude exports for four decades.

“This is a very small step in opening up to crude exports,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “This move alone isn’t enough to make a measurable difference.”

The U.S. pumped more than 8.4 million barrels a day in May and annual output is forecast to reach 9.3 million barrels a day in 2015, the highest since 1972, according to the EIA.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: David Marino at dmarino4@bloomberg.net Richard Stubbe


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