Bloomberg News

Fed Minutes, Carney, EU Talks, Olympics: Week Ahead Feb. 17-22

February 16, 2014

The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its Jan. 28-29 meeting, the last presided over by former Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and at which policy makers further reduced the central bank’s record stimulus.

U.S. home sales and new home construction probably fell, data this week may show. Japanese GDP and Chinese manufacturing data will be released.

The U.S. and European Union will resume talks as the world’s two largest economies try to reach a trade pact.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT:US), Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ:US), BHP Billiton Plc (BLT) and MGM China Holdings Ltd. (2282) report earnings.

The Winter Olympics enters its final week in Sochi, Russia. European soccer’s Champions League round of 16 begins.

MONDAY, FEB. 17

-Presidents Day. U.S. national holiday. U.S. stock and bond markets are closed.

-U.S.-EU trade talks. U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman and European Union Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht meet to assess progress toward reaching a Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership free-trade accord. The pact would unite the world’s two largest economies with $32.9 trillion in annual output. Both sides are seeking an agreement by the end of 2014. Revelations about the U.S.’s surveillance of European leaders have hampered negotiations. Times to be determined. Through 02/18.

-European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny speaks at an event in London about Austria’s role in the European economic recovery. 11:00 (06:00 EST).

-Batista’s bankruptcy plan for OGX. Oleo & Gas Participacoes SA, Eike Batista’s oil company that requested protection from creditors, must present by today a plan for emerging from bankruptcy. The filing may detail operating and financial estimates for the coming months. In Rio de Janeiro.

-A South Korean court is expected to rule on charges against an opposition lawmaker accused of leading a plot to overthrow the government. Time to be determined.

-Japan’s economy probably expanded for a fifth quarter in the Oct.-Dec. period, GDP data will show, as fiscal and monetary stimulus provided a boost for the economy. 08:50 in Tokyo (02/16 18:50 EST).

-Thailand will release GDP data for the fourth quarter as political unrest threatens the country’s expansion. The economy probably grew 0.3 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 2.7 percent pace in the previous three months, according to a Bloomberg survey. 09:30 in Bangkok (2/16 21:30 EST).

-Bank of Israel Governor Karnit Flug speaks at the Central Bureau of Statistics seminar on Israeli society in Jerusalem. 09:25 local time (02:25 EST).

-Israeli Finance Minister Yair Lapid speaks at the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations meeting in Jerusalem. 16:15 local time (09:15 EST).

-ECONOMY: South Korea department, discount store sales (Jan.), Turkey unemployment rate (Nov.), U.K. Rightmove House Prices (UKRMNAPM) (Feb.).

-EARNINGS: Suntory Holdings Ltd., Christian Dior SA. (CDI)

-The Winter Olympics schedule includes the two-man bobsled final. 18:30 local time (09:30 EST). Medals will also be decided for ice-dance figure skating at 19:00.

TUESDAY, FEB. 18

-Iran nuclear talks resume. Diplomats from Iran will meet with representatives from China, France, Germany, Russia, the U.K. and U.S. in Vienna, the first negotiations since the accord reached in Geneva in November. 10:00 CET (05:00 EST).

-Calpers report. California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the largest U.S. public pension, issues a report that will outline potentially higher costs for the $275.2 billion fund. California Governor Jerry Brown is pressing Calpers to account for the higher cost of longer life expectancy for retirees, which may add $9 billion to the pension’s funding gap. The Calpers board is expected to decide whether to adopt Brown’s recommendation or delay changing contribution rates for two years. 15:15 in Sacramento, California. (18:15 EST).

-Ex-Jefferies broker-dealer goes on trial. Jesse Litvak is charged with a $2 million fraud through a program that used government bailout funds to spur investment in mortgage-backed securities. He allegedly misrepresented how much financial firms were asking for the securities or what funds established under the Troubled Asset Relief Program were willing to pay, keeping the difference for Jefferies. 09:30 at the federal court in New Haven, Connecticut.

-The Bank of Japan will announce monetary policy at the end of a two-day meeting in Tokyo. The bank has kept policy unchanged since April last year, when it announced its unprecedented quantitative easing policy in a bid to achieve 2 percent inflation. Timing uncertain, with the meeting usually ending at about 12:00 in Tokyo (2/17 22:00 EST). The meeting is usually followed by a press conference with Governor Haruhiko Kuroda at 15:30.

-European Central Bank Chief Economist Peter Praet speaks in Lisbon at 10:20 local time (05:20 EST). ECB Governing Council member Luis Maria Linde speaks at 12:00 in Madrid (06:00 EST). Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen speaks at 17:30 in Helsinki (10:30 EST).

-The World Gold Council, a producer-funded group, will issue global estimates for consumption of gold in bars, jewelry and coins for the final quarter of 2013 and for the whole of last year. 06:00 in London (01:00 EST).

-Representatives of Satorp, a joint venture between Saudi Arabian Oil Co. and Total SA, and the Oman Oil Refineries and Petroleum Industries Co. will attend the ME-TECH 2014 Middle East Technology Forum in Dubai. 08:00 (02/17, 23:00 EST). Through 02/19.

-ECONOMY: Empire manufacturing (Feb.), U.S. capital flows (Dec.), South Korea producer prices (Jan.), Taiwan final GDP (4Q), Hong Kong unemployment (Jan.), EU car registrations (Jan.), ECB current account (Dec.), German ZEW survey (Feb.), U.K. inflation (Jan.), Italian trade balance (Dec.).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Chile rate decision, Reserve Bank of Australia minutes (Feb.), Turkey rate decision.

-EARNINGS: Coca-Cola Co. (KO:US), Herbalife Ltd. (HLF:US), Wal-Mart de Mexico SAB, Oi SA, Bank of East Asia Ltd., Gas Natural SDG SA (GAS), Air Liquide SA (AI), BHP Billiton Plc, Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA. (CO)

-The Winter Olympics schedule includes the women’s giant slalom, won by Germany’s Viktoria Rebensburg in 2010. 11:00 local time (02:00 EST).

-European soccer’s Champions League round of 16 starts, with Germany’s Bayer Leverkusen playing Paris Saint-Germain at 20:45 CET (14:45 EST). Manchester City hosts four-time European Cup winner Barcelona at 19:45 U.K. time (14:45 EST).

WEDNESDAY, FEB. 19

-U.S. housing starts, or the construction of new homes, probably declined for a second month in January, according to a Bloomberg survey, as colder-than-normal weather and snowfall kept builders from starting work. The Commerce Department reports at 08:30 in Washington.

-Fed minutes. The Federal Reserve releases minutes of its Jan. 28-29 meeting at which the Federal Open Market Committee announced a $10 billion reduction in monthly bond purchases to $65 billion, citing improvement in the labor market and a pickup in growth. During the final meeting under former Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, policy makers united behind a strategy to gradually wind down bond buying that has expanded the Fed’s balance sheet to $4.1 trillion. Janet Yellen, sworn in as Fed chair on Feb. 3, reiterated her support for taking “measured steps” in tapering Fed purchases in Feb. 11 testimony before the U.S. Congress. 14:00 in Washington.

-North American Summit. President Barack Obama, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper are expected to focus on the regional economy, trade and energy as well as border security and drug trafficking. In Toluca, Mexico. Times to be announced.

-Hearing on Bank of America’s $8.5 billion accord with mortgage-bond investors. A judge will hear arguments from American International Group Inc. and other objectors who say further litigation is necessary on which trusts will be covered, how much of the money will be distributed to trust beneficiaries, and how it will be allocated. The objectors want the final judgment delayed. 09:30 at the New York State Supreme Court, Manhattan.

-Bank of England minutes. The BOE publishes the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee’s Feb. 5-6 meeting, at which officials kept the key interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent. The minutes will provide insight into the MPC’s discussions on its new phase of forward guidance and show whether any members disagreed with the plan. 09:30 in London (04:30 EST).

-ECONOMY: U.S. producer price index (Jan.), U.S. building permits (Jan.), South Africa consumer-price inflation (Jan.), Euro-area construction output (Dec.), U.K. unemployment (Oct.- Dec.), Swiss ZEW survey (Feb.).

-EARNINGS: Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA:US), Marriott International Inc. (MAR:US), Carlyle Group LP (CG:US), MGM China Holdings Ltd., Credit Agricole SA (ACA), Deutsche Boerse AG, Mediobanca SpA (MB), Natixis SA (KN), Peugeot SA (UG), Thales SA (HO), Lafarge SA (LG), Iberdrola SA (IBE), Carlsberg A/S. (CARLB)

-The Winter Olympics schedule includes medal events in the men’s giant slalom, where Ted Ligety of the U.S. is due to compete. 11:00 local time (02:00 EST). The women’s 5,000-meter speed skating is at 17:30.

-Atletico Madrid plays AC Milan in the Champions League in the northern Italian city. 20:45 CET (14:45 EST). Arsenal meets five-time champion Bayern Munich in London at 19:45 (14:45 EST).

THURSDAY, FEB. 20

-U.S. leading indicators index. The gauge probably climbed in January, according to a Bloomberg survey, underscoring the view of Federal Reserve policy makers that the economy is improving. The Conference Board reports at 10:00 in New York.

-U.S. consumer prices probably increased in January at a slower rate than the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey, showing inflation is making little progress toward the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent goal. The Labor Department reports at 08:30 in Washington.

-U.S. bond auction. The Treasury Department is scheduled to sell $9 billion in 30-year inflation-indexed bonds, known as Treasury Inflation Protected Securities or TIPS.

-The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board releases investigative records and holds a one-day hearing into the Aug. 14, 2013, crash of an Airbus A300-600 that killed two pilots for United Parcel Service Inc. in Birmingham, Alabama. The hearing will examine factors including the execution of the approach and whether the pilots were fatigued. 08:30 in Washington.

-Japan reports January trade figures after the nation posted a record 11.5 trillion yen ($113 billion) deficit in 2013 as the weaker yen pushed up the bill for imported energy. The trade deficit in the first 20 days of January was 2 trillion yen, a record in comparable data going back to 1990. Trade statistics in January and February can be affected by the lunar new year holiday in many Asian nations. 08:50 in Tokyo (02/19 18:50 EST).

-ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio speaks at 11:30 in Brussels (05:30 EST).

-Egyptian trial begins of nine Al Jazeera staff journalists and 11 others on charges of backing a terrorist organization, airing false news and portraying the country as engaged in a civil war.

-A preliminary reading of a Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for February will be released by HSBC and Markit Economics. The index fell to below 50 in January for the first time in six months, signaling a contraction. 09:45 in Beijing (02/19 20:45 EST).

-North and South Korea begin a six-day reunion of families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War at an eastern mountain resort in the North. The reunions, the first since late 2010, represent one of the last remaining links to a united Korea. Millions of Koreans were separated during the conflict that ended in a truce and without a peace treaty.

-Executives from State Oil Co. of the Azerbaijan Republic, Rosneft OAO and Lukoil OAO will attend the Russia & CIS Oil & Gas Executive Summit in Dubai. 09:00 (00:00 EST). Through 02/21.

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly natural gas supply report. 10:30 in Washington.

-ECONOMY: U.S. initial jobless claims (weekly), Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), Brazil unemployment (Jan.), Singapore final GDP (SGDPQOQ) (4Q), Taiwan export orders (Jan.), Taiwan current account (4Q), Euro-area PMIs (ECPMICOU) (Feb.), euro-area consumer confidence (Feb.), German PPI (GRPFIYOY) (Jan.), French CPI (FRCPEECY) (Jan.), Italian industrial orders (Dec.), U.K. CBI factory orders (Feb.).

-EARNINGS: Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Hewlett-Packard Co., Priceline.com (PCLN:US) Inc., Nordstrom Inc. (JWN:US), Express Scripts Holding Co. (ESRX:US), Groupon Inc. (GRPN:US), Citic Pacific Ltd. (267), Wilmar International Ltd. (WIL), Swiss Re AG (SREN), Henkel AG, BAE Systems Plc (BA/), Centrica Plc (CNA), Aegon NV (AGN), Danone (BN), Air France-KLM (AF), Accor SA. (AC)

-The Winter Olympics schedule includes the end of the women’s figure-skating event at 19:00 local time (10:00 EST). The women’s gold medal in curling will be decided, starting at 17:30, as will the women’s hockey final at 21:00.

FRIDAY, FEB. 21

-U.S. existing home sales. Purchases of previously owned homes probably declined in January, according to a Bloomberg survey, as higher mortgage rates at the end of 2013 restrained momentum in the housing-market recovery. The National Association of Realtors reports at 10:00 in Washington.

-Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Jo White delivers the keynote address to the Practising Law Institute conference. 08:45 in Washington.

-The Canadian Liberal Party, led by Justin Trudeau, holds its biennial convention in advance of the 2015 general election. Trudeau booted 32 senators from the party’s caucus in January. The Liberal Party has fallen to third in number of seats behind Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives and the New Democrats. Starts 18:00 in Montreal. Through Feb. 23.

-Singapore Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam will deliver the government’s budget statement for 2014 and unveil the details of a so-called Pioneer Generation Package designed to reduce medical expenses for the elderly. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has in recent years encouraged companies to produce more with fewer workers as the island confronts an aging population and voter discontent with foreigners in the country. 15:30 in Singapore (02:30 EST).

-The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its monthly cold storage report and its cattle-on-feed report. 15:00 in Washington.

-ECONOMY: Canadian inflation (Jan.), Brazil mid-month inflation (Feb.), Brazil current account (Jan.), Mexico GDP (MXGCTOT) (fourth quarter), Hong Kong CPI (HKCPIY) (Jan.), U.K. retail sales (Jan.); U.K. budget balance (Jan.), Italian CPI (ITCPEY) (Jan.), Spain trade balance (Dec.).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Bank of Japan minutes (Jan.).

-EARNINGS: Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR:US), Gerdau SA, AIA Group Ltd. (1299), Noble Group Ltd. (NOBL), Esprit Holdings Ltd. (330), Axa SA. (CS)

-SOVEREIGN RATING UPDATES: Abu Dhabi (Fitch), Austria (Fitch), Czech Republic (Moody’s), Democratic Republic of Congo (S&P), Ireland (Fitch), Montenegro (Moody’s), Norway (Moody’s), Spain (Moody’s), Uganda (Fitch), Ukraine (S&P).

-The Winter Olympics schedule includes the medal event in women’s slalom skiing, with the final run at 20:15 local time (11:15 EST). Germany’s Maria Hoefl-Riesch will aim to repeat her 2010 win in Vancouver.

-Wales, seeking a third-straight Six Nations rugby title, hosts France at Cardiff. 20:00 local time (15:00 EST).

SATURDAY, FEB. 22

-Talks on a 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact begin in Singapore, the latest round of ministerial-level negotiations. Previous talks in December, also held in Singapore, failed to meet the end of 2013 deadline to wrap up the U.S.-led trade deal, which would link an area with about $28 trillion in annual economic output.

-G-20 finance ministers & central bank governors meet in Sydney to discuss tax reform, infrastructure investment and ways to boost economic growth. Feb. 22-23.

-The Winter Olympics schedule includes the men’s slalom skiing event, with the final run at 20:15 local time (11:15 EST). The men’s bronze-medal game in hockey is at 19:00.

-Italy hosts Scotland in Rome in rugby’s Six Nations tournament at 14:30 CET (08:30 EST). England plays Ireland at Twickenham. 16:00 local time (11:00 EST).

Note to our readers: Click on blue ECONOMY headline at bottom of each day for access to Bloomberg’s complete global economic calendar.

To contact the reporters on this story: James Amott in London at jamott@bloomberg.net; Greg Miles in New York at gmiles1@bloomberg.net; Keat Kian Koh in Singapore at kkoh@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andy Davidson at adavidson@bloomberg.net


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