Bloomberg News

Harper Sees 2014 Canada Rebound on Poloz Appropriate Policy (1)

January 17, 2014

Stephen Poloz and Stephen Harper

Stephen Poloz, governor of the Bank of Canada, left, shakes hands with by Stephen Harper, Canada's prime minister, right, while being welcomed into office in Ottawa Canada in a June 3, 2013 file photo. Photographer: Patrick Doyle/Bloomberg

Prime Minister Stephen Harper endorsed the Bank of Canada’s decision to stop warning about higher interest rates and predicted that naysayers on the economy will be proven wrong in 2014.

Harper, in an interview yesterday at his Ottawa office, said central bank Governor Stephen Poloz’s policy is appropriate, and that critics focusing on a sliding currency and a weak December jobs report are being short sighted.

A weaker economic outlook “is not our read, and I don’t think that’s the read of the majority of analysts,” Harper said. “We are pretty optimistic about the prospects for the year to come.”

The world’s 11th-largest economy has struggled to emerge from a two-year slump that has been largely due to weaker-than-expected exports and investment. That prompted Poloz to remove the bank’s bias to raise interest rates in October, helping fuel declines in the currency, which has dropped 10 percent against the U.S. dollar over the last year.

Asked whether he felt the level of the currency is appropriate, Harper said the Bank of Canada is “ultimately responsible for these issues.”

“We have every reason to have confidence that the Bank of Canada has appropriate monetary policies in place,” Harper said. He added what matters is not the movement in the Canadian dollar but whether it’s “at an appropriate level given various economic realities.”

Weaker Currency

The currency weakened 0.5 percent since Harper’s comments. It traded at 1.0971 per U.S. dollar at 8:22 a.m. in Toronto. One Canadian dollar buys 91.15 U.S. cents.

The dollar’s decline reflects strength in the U.S. dollar, which “has been undervalued,” Harper said.

The depreciation “really isn’t a drop in the value of the Canadian dollar,” Harper said. “What there is, as you know, is a rise globally in the value of the American dollar.”

The comments may be hinting at the government’s support for a weaker dollar, said Adrian Miller, director of fixed-income strategies at GMP Securities LLC in New York, in an e-mailed statement.

The prime minister is “implying he does not object to the recent weakness in the loonie,” Miller said. Harper is “basically offering an excuse as to why it’s OK.”

Josianne Menard, a central bank spokeswoman, declined to comment, citing the “blackout” period when policy makers refrain from speaking within a week of an interest rate announcement. The next policy decision is scheduled for Jan. 22.

‘Fine Line’

The prime minister “is walking a fine line as to not appear to be applying any indirect pressure on Poloz and the Bank of Canada,” Miller said. Government ministers typically refrain from commenting directly on the central bank’s operations.

The central bank and private economists project a rebound in 2014 as the U.S. expansion accelerates and a weaker dollar boosts demand for Canada’s goods. Canada’s economy will grow 2.3 percent in 2014, up from 1.7 percent last year, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the same projection the Bank of Canada made in October.

While Canada’s economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.7 percent in the third quarter, the fastest in two years, that trailed the 4.1 percent pace seen in the U.S.

Statistics Canada said on Jan. 10 that Canada’s economy lost 45,900 jobs in December, pushing the country’s unemployment rate to 7.2 percent from 6.9 percent.

Peggy Nash, spokeswoman for the main opposition New Democratic Party on economic issues, issued a statement that day claiming the governing Conservatives were “failing” to create jobs and spur growth. Manufacturing employment fell by 41,600, or 2.3 percent in 2013, Statistics Canada data show.

Factory Employment

CCL Industries Inc. (CCL/B), a Toronto-based manufacturer, said Nov. 22 it will close its aerosol-container plant in Penetanguishene, Ontario, citing losses that came as the Canadian dollar strengthened over the past decade.

Canada’s labor-force surveys have large monthly margins of error, Harper said in the interview, adding the recent trend has been “slow but steady” growth and the December drop could be soon reversed.

“We would really need to see a month, if not two, to see whether the numbers in January were any kind of a trend or simply a statistical aberration,” Harper said. “Everything we have with us today would indicate every reason to believe it’s the latter.”

The Canadian government has actually been “pleasantly surprised” by the strength of the Canadian economy since the end of the global recession in the absence of similar growth for the country’s largest trading partner, Harper said.

“The strength of the American economy is a big deal,” Harper said. “For us to have better results we need to see the American economy expand.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Theophilos Argitis in Ottawa at targitis@bloomberg.net; Greg Quinn in Ottawa at gquinn1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Scanlan at dscanlan@bloomberg.net


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