Bloomberg News

World Oilseed Crushing Forecast Raised by Oil World on Rapeseed

December 24, 2013

Global oilseed crushing is forecast to climb to a record in 2013-14 as more soybeans and sunflower seeds are processed, with the outlook raised from September on increased expectations for rapeseed crush, Oil World said.

Crush of 10 major oilseeds may jump to 405.1 million metric tons in the year through September from 387.7 million tons a year earlier, the Hamburg-based researcher said in an e-mailed report today. The group in September had forecast crushing of 401.1 million tons.

Oilseeds including soybeans and rapeseed are crushed to produce vegetable oils and meal used to feed livestock. Soybean futures dropped 6.4 percent this year on the Chicago Board of Trade as the Department of Agriculture forecast a record global soybean crop of 284.9 million metric tons in 2013-14.

“A record oilseed crop is shaping up this season,” Oil World wrote. “Soybeans will be the growth leader with an additional 12 million tons to be processed, followed by sunflower seed and rapeseed.”

World production of seed oils probably will rise to 105.7 million tons from 101 million tons, while meal output is predicted to rise to 279 million tons from 266.5 million tons.

Processing of soybeans will rise to 237.6 million tons from 225.7 million tons, similar to a September outlook for 237.3 million tons. Oil World raised its estimate for rapeseed crushing to 62.8 million tons from an earlier outlook of 60.4 million tons, and up from 61.7 million tons in 2012-13.

Sunflower seed crush is predicted to climb to 36.2 million from 32.1 million tons. That’s up from the September outlook for 35.8 million tons.

China’s Soybeans

Oilseed processing in China, the world’s biggest soybean consumer, will rise to 92.2 million tons from 90.7 million tons, Oil World estimates. Crushing in the U.S. is seen slipping to 50.1 million tons from 50.5 million tons.

“In the U.S., soybean crushings are on track to increase by about 0.2 million ton in the first quarter, but in the full 2013-14 season a stagnation appears likely in view of the rapid depletion of soybean stocks by the record export commitments,” the researcher said.

European Union oilseed crush may climb to 43.5 million tons from 43 million tons, based on Oil World’s estimates. Brazil may process 40.3 million tons of oilseeds from 36.8 million tons in 2012-13, while Argentina may lift its crush to 40.7 million tons from 36.7 million tons.

“In Argentina, soybean crushings are still held below potential by the reserved farmer selling,” Oil World wrote.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rudy Ruitenberg in Paris at rruitenberg@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net


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