Bloomberg News

Bank of Japan October 31 Long-Term Policy Forecasts (Table)

October 29, 2013

The BOJ is likely to announce additional monetary stimulus in the first six months of next year, according to 25 of 34 economists in a Bloomberg News survey conducted Oct. 23-28.

Many of the economists in the survey see the bank stepping up the pace of its asset purchases in Japanese government bonds, exchange-traded funds, and Japanese real-estate investment trusts as the most likely means of easing.

===============================================================================
Economist                        Next                Easing Type      Timing of
and Firm                     Stimulus                                 QQME Exit
===============================================================================
Masayuki Kichikawa         April-June        Risk assets, extend       2H 2016 
BofA Merrill Lynch               2014   current purchase program
Kyohei Morita              April-June         JGBs, risk assets,       1H 2017 
Barclays Bank PLC                2014             extend current
                                                purchase program
Ryutaro Kono               July-Sept.              JGB purchases  unforeseeable
BNP Paribas                      2014
Marcel Thieliant           Sept. 2014         JGBs, risk assets,  unforeseeable
===============================================================================
Economist                        Next                Easing Type      Timing of
and Firm                     Stimulus                                 QQME Exit
===============================================================================
Capital Economics            or later             extend current
                                                purchase program
Kiichi Murashima           July-Sept.         JGBs, risk assets,         revise
Citigroup Inc                    2014             extend current      framework
                                                purchase program
Kazuhiko Ogata             April-June             Fund-supplying           2018
Credit Agricole                  2014        operations, cutting       or later
                                             rates for operation
Hiromichi Shirakawa        Jan.-March  JGBs, risk assets, extend         revise
Credit Suisse                    2014  current purchase program,      framework
                                          consider foreign bonds
Hideo Kumano                No easing                        N/A  unforeseeable
Dai-ichi Life         
Mitsumaru Kumagai          April-June         JGBs, risk assets,  unforeseeable
Daiwa Institute                  2014             treasury bills
Maiko Noguchi              April-June                Risk assets  unforeseeable
Daiwa Securities                 2014
===============================================================================
Economist                        Next                Easing Type      Timing of
and Firm                     Stimulus                                 QQME Exit
===============================================================================
Naohiko Baba               April-June               Risk assets,         revise
Goldman Sachs                    2014           forward guidance      framework
Yoshimasa Maruyama         April-June        Risk assets, extend         revise
Itochu Corporation               2014   current purchase program      framework

Takuji Okubo               Jan.-March             Extend current  unforeseeable
Japan Macro Advisors             2014           purchase program
Hideki Matsumura           April-June                Risk assets        1H 2016
Japan Research Inst.             2014
Masaaki Kanno              April-June                Risk assets           2018
JPMorgan Chase & Co.             2014                                  or later
Yuichi Kodama              Jan.-March          JGBs, risk assets         revise
Meiji Yasuda Life                2014                                 framework
Yuji Shimanaka              Oct.-Dec.        FILP bond-buying in        1H 2015
Mitsubishi UFJ MS             2013 or       in Dec., increase of
Securities BCR             April-June              ETFs in April
                                 2014
===============================================================================
Economist                        Next                Easing Type      Timing of
and Firm                     Stimulus                                 QQME Exit
===============================================================================
Hajime Takata              Jan.-March         JGBs, risk assets,         revise
Mizuho Research                  2014             extend current      framework
                                                purchase program
Yasunari Ueno              Sept. 2014         JGBs, risk assets,         revise
Mizuho Securities            or later             extend current      framework
                                                purchase program
Naoki Murakami             April-June         JGBs, risk assets,           2016
Monex Inc.                       2014             extend current       or later
                                                purchase program
Takeshi Yamaguchi          July-Sept.         JGBs, risk assets,        2H 2016
Morgan Stanley MUFG              2014             extend current       or later
                                               purchase program,
                                                forward guidance
Yasuhide Yajima            Jan.-March         JGBs, risk assets,           2018
NLI Research Institute           2014             extend current       or later
                                                purchase program
Naka Matsuzawa             July-Sept.        Risk assets, extend     April-June
===============================================================================
Economist                        Next                Easing Type      Timing of
and Firm                     Stimulus                                 QQME Exit
===============================================================================
Nomura Securities                2014   current purchase program           2016
Takeshi Minami             July-Sept.         JGBs, risk assets,        2H 2017
Norinchukin Research             2014        excess reserve rate
                                             cut, extend current
                                                purchase program
Makoto Suzuki              April-June         JGBs, risk assets,       2H 2016 
Okasan Securities                2014             extend current
                                                purchase program
Junko Nishioka             April-June        Risk assets, extend        2H 2015
RBS Securities                   2014   current purchase program
Akio Makabe                April-June         JGBs, risk assets,        1H 2016
Shinshu University               2014             extend current
                                               purchase program,
                                                  fund-supplying
                                                      operations
Chotaro Morita             April-June          JGBs, risk assets  unforeseeable
SMBC Nikko Securities            2014
===============================================================================
Economist                        Next                Easing Type      Timing of
and Firm                     Stimulus                                 QQME Exit
===============================================================================
Mari Iwashita              April-June          JGBs, risk assets         revise
SMBC Friend Securities           2014                                 framework
Takuji Aida                April-June         JGBs, risk assets,        1H 2017
Societe Generale                 2014             extend current
                                                purchase program
Hiroaki Muto               April-June         JGBs, risk assets,           2018
Sumitomo Mitsui                  2014             extend current       or later
Asset Management                                purchase program
Izuru Kato                 April-June         JGBs, risk assets,  unforeseeable
The Totan Research               2014             extend current
                                                purchase program
Kazuhiko Sano              July-Sept.         JGBs, risk assets,  unforeseeable
Tokai Tokyo Securities           2014             extend current      or revise
                                                purchase program      framework
Daiju Aoki                 April-June          JGBs, risk assets           2018
UBS Securities                   2014                                  or later
===============================================================================

NOTE 1: 2H = 2nd half of the year NOTE 2: 2Q = 2nd quarter of the year NOTE 3: FY = Fiscal year in Japan starts in April and ends in March

To contact the reporters on this story: Masahiro Hidaka in Tokyo at mhidaka@bloomberg.net; Isaac Aquino in Tokyo at iaquino1@bloomberg.net; Toru Fujioka in Tokyo at tfujioka1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net


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