Thailand’s baht headed for a weekly decline and government bonds dropped on speculation the ruling coalition’s plan to push forward an amnesty bill for political protesters will trigger renewed tension.
The benchmark SET Index (SET) of shares fell by the most in six weeks yesterday after the leader of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai Party said late July 24 that a bill to pardon all wrongdoings in past political demonstrations will be tabled in August, according to the party’s website. The currency touched a one-week low today amid concern an economic slowdown in China, Thailand’s top export market, will hurt overseas sales.
“While sentiment is not so strong, any concern with regard to the political situation hurts the baht and Thai assets,” said Tohru Nishihama, an economist covering emerging markets at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc. in Tokyo. “China slowdown concern is lingering and from the export perspective, it’s negative for the region.”
The baht fell 0.2 percent this week to 31.1 per dollar as of 8:57 a.m. in Bangkok and touched a one-week low of 31.17 earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It was little changed today after declining 0.5 percent yesterday. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, dropped 70 basis points this week to 6.03 percent.
The proposed bill would pardon those involved in demonstrations, mainly supporters of the current government, after former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was toppled in a 2006 coup. Thaksin is Yingluck’s brother. The bill is negative for stocks and could lead to another round of demonstrations, according to a DBS Vickers research note released yesterday.
Exports increased 1.6 percent last month after a 5.3 percent decline in May, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey before data due at 10 a.m. local time.
A Purchasing Managers Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics this week showed a preliminary reading for Chinese factory output of 47.7 in July, compared with a forecast for 48.2. China took 12 percent of Thai exports in the first five months of 2013, official data show.
The yield on the 3.625 percent bonds due June 2023 increased 14 basis points, or 0.14 percentage point, this week to 3.87 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The rate, which was steady today, was the highest since June 26.
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