U.S. corn production is rebounding the most in two decades as farms recover from last year’s drought-plagued harvest. Hedge funds are bearish on prices for the first time since 2010.
Output this year will jump 29 percent to a record 13.95 billion bushels (355.2 million metric tons), the biggest increase since 1994, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. That will add enough grain to supply the 28-nation European Union and Japan for a year and more than double U.S. inventories before the harvest in 2014. Futures will drop 9.4 percent to $4.75 a bushel in three months, the lowest since October 2010, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates.
Farmers planted the most acres since 1936 this season as some Midwest fields got three times their normal rainfall, including a record soaking in Iowa, the top growing state. Corn tumbled 18 percent in the cash market from the peak during last year’s drought, reducing costs for buyers including Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and JBS (JBSS3) SA and helping drive global food prices lower in six of the past nine months.
“The crop is going to be big,” said Hal Reed, the chief operating officer at Maumee, Ohio-based Andersons Inc., which owns terminals in seven states capable of storing 145 million bushels and produces 350 million gallons of ethanol from corn annually. “Conditions are looking very good right now. We will have lots of bushels to merchandise, more bushels to store, and cheaper corn for ethanol.”
Futures for delivery in December, after the harvest, fell 13 percent this year to $5.24 today on the Chicago Board of Trade. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities slipped 0.7 percent since the end of December, while the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities rose 8.6 percent. Treasuries lost 3.3 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.
Stockpiles in the U.S. on Sept. 1, 2014, will reach 1.959 billion bushels, up from 729 million a year earlier and higher than the 1.895 billion bushels estimated by 22 analysts in a Bloomberg survey before the USDA report.
Hedge funds turned bearish last week for the first time since April 2010, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The net-short position reached 19,943 futures and options, the most since February 2009. Speculators were net-long 98,380 contracts as recently as May 28.
“We don’t see demand keeping up with the increase in supply,” said Chris Gadd, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London who anticipates $4.50 or less before the end of the year. “Once you build that surplus, you have to sell it, and the only way to sell it is to sell it cheap.”
With most of the Midwest harvest still three months away, yields can still be eroded by extreme weather. Last year’s drought, the worst since the 1930s, cut U.S. production by 13 percent and drove prices to a record $8.49 on Aug. 10.
Crop planting accelerated in the past month as fields dried out after unusually wet weather earlier in the season that curbed sowing to the slowest pace since 1980, USDA data show. Rainfall in parts of Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and South Dakota was less than 50 percent of normal in the 30 days ended July 9, National Weather Service data show.
“We continue to watch dryness and building heat in the western Corn Belt, which could pressure yields,” said Bennett Meier, an analyst at Morgan Stanley in New York. Most of the crop was seeded two weeks later than normal, so plants will pollinate during the hottest, driest part of the year, he said.
There’s also an increased risk that corn won’t mature before freezing weather arrives, usually beginning by late September to mid-October, said Fred Gesser, the senior agricultural meteorologist for Planalytics Inc. in Berwyn, Pennsylvania. The chance of an early Midwest cold spell increased after volcanic eruptions in Russia and Alaska during the past month sent gases and ash into the atmosphere, he said.
“We’re behind normal, so right now I would say my main concern would be an early frost,” said Dave Pollock, the manager of Wiota Elevator Inc., which operates grain terminals in Wiota and Anita, Iowa.
Crop conditions improved in each of the past four weeks, with 68 percent rated good or excellent by July 5, USDA data show. That’s above the five-year average of 63 percent. A year earlier, the rating was 40 percent and by September had dropped to 25 percent.
Fields in Iowa were soaked by 17.67 inches of rain from March 1 to May 31, the wettest in records going back to 1873, according to the state climatologist. That improved conditions for the 97.4 million acres the USDA estimates was planted with corn this year.
Yields may average 190 to 200 bushels an acre in the central Illinois counties from 148 in 2012 and the 10-year average of 182.9 bushels, said Kim Craig, the head grain merchandiser for Deer Creek, Illinois-based Bell Enterprises Inc., which owns four storage facilities. The USDA today forecast a national yield of 156.5 bushels, up 27 percent from a year earlier.
The record U.S. crop will help boost global production 12 percent to 959.84 million tons, while consumption expands 7.9 percent to 932.43 million tons, the USDA said. Stockpiles will jump 22 percent to 150.97 million tons in the year that starts Oct. 1, the highest since 2001.
After three years of prices above $5, or 63 percent more than the average over the previous decade, farmers boosted output in Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, Europe and Canada.
Ample corn supplies will help boost profit in grain handling and ethanol production for Decatur, Illinois-based ADM. (ADM:US) Shares of the company rose 31 percent to $35.90 in New York trading this year. ADM will report a 12 percent gain in profit (ADM:US) to $1.56 billion this year, according to the mean of six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Lower grain prices will help JBS, the Sao Paulo-based meat producer whose businesses include the Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. poultry unit. Feed should cost “much less” in the U.S., Chief Executive Officer Wesley Mendonca Batista said in a conference call in May.
The United Nations’ cereal-price index dropped in eight of the past nine months, declining 10 percent since September. Global food costs are now 11 percent below the record they reached in February 2011.
“Markets that go high and stay high too long will endure a longer trough in prices to reach equilibrium,” said Michael Swanson, a senior agricultural economist in Minneapolis for Wells Fargo & Co., the largest U.S. farm lender. “It’s going to take a couple of years of $4 to $4.50 corn to knock this market back to reality.”
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