The world’s biggest investment banks may see combined sales from trading securities, underwriting shares and bonds and advising clients on mergers rise about 10 percent in the second quarter, JPMorgan Cazenove analysts said.
Morgan Stanley (MS:US) and Deutsche Bank AG are expected to post the biggest gains from the year-earlier period, of 18 percent and 14 percent respectively, analysts led by Kian Abouhossein wrote in a note to clients today.
The analysts see limited trading losses stemming from recent market swings in bonds and emerging-market currencies, though revenue in the second quarter may drop by about 14 percent from the first quarter. The global investment banks tracked by JPMorgan, which also include Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN), Goldman Sachs (GS:US) Group Inc. and Barclays Plc (BARC), will post similar declines, while UBS (UBSN) AG will see a larger drop as it exits businesses, the analysts estimated.
JPMorgan recommends UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank, because of its limited holdings in emerging markets, and Morgan Stanley over Goldman Sachs, according to the note.
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