Bloomberg News

Soybean Prices Seen Lower in 2013-14 by Oil World on Supply Rise

June 25, 2013

Soybeans, sunflower seed, rapeseed and palm oil prices are predicted to decline in the 2013-14 year starting in July to the lowest in four years on increased global oilseed production, researcher Oil World said.

U.S. soybean prices are predicted to fall 18 percent to an average $480 a metric ton in Rotterdam on the basis of cost, insurance and freight from $587 a ton in 2012-13, the Hamburg-based researcher said.

The global harvest of 10 oilseeds is forecast to rise to 484.5 million metric tons from 463.5 million tons in 2012-13, according to Oil World. Favorable weather and a “clear-cut” recovery in oilseed yields and output will probably result in price pressure, with lows in September or October.

“Price prospects are bearish for oilseeds, with considerable downward potential in soybeans, sunflower seed, rapeseed and linseed in the new-crop positions,” Oil World said. “However, weather risks are big.”

Soybean oil is forecast to fall 10 percent to $1,050 a ton free-on-board ex-mill in the Netherlands in the next season, while Brazilian soybean pellets in Rotterdam are seen falling 22 percent to an average $430 a ton.

EU sunflower seeds for delivery on the lower Rhine River are forecast to slide 17 percent to $530 a ton, while sunflower-seed oil may drop 12 percent to an average $1,110, according to Oil World’s outlook.

Rapeseed in Hamburg may fall 15 percent to $525 a ton in 2013-14, Dutch ex-works rapeseed oil is seen sliding 7 percent to $1,100, while the meal pressed from the seed is seen falling 22 percent to $290 a ton in Hamburg.

Northwest European prices for crude palm oil are forecast to fall 2 percent to $860 a ton, Oil World said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rudy Ruitenberg in Paris at rruitenberg@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net


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