Aggregate world soybean production will decline from last month’s forecast because of dry weather in Argentina, the biggest shipper of soy-based animal feed and vegetable oil. Inventories will rise because of slowing demand, the U.S. government said.
Argentina’s crop will be 51.5 million metric tons, down 2.8 percent from February’s forecast, while world production will decline 0.6 percent to 268 million tons, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. A Bloomberg survey showed analysts expected production in the world’s third-biggest grower to be 51.2 million tons after dry weather damaged crops earlier this year.
Global inventories of the oilseed at the end of this marketing year will be 60.21 million tons, up from 60.12 million forecast in February, the USDA said. A year earlier, supplies totaled a 55.25 million.
Brazil, which began harvesting last month, is projected to pass the U.S. as the top producer and exporter for the first time. The country’s output was forecast at a record 83.5 million metric tons, unchanged from a month earlier while up from 66.5 million a year ago. U.S. production was pegged at 3.015 billion bushels (82.06 million tons), unchanged from February.
U.S. stockpiles on Aug. 31 will be 125 million bushels (3.4 million metric tons), also unchanged from February and down from 169 million a year earlier. All other estimates for the U.S. crop were left unchanged from a month ago.
Soybean futures for May delivery rose 0.4 percent to $14.7875 a bushel at 9:22 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soybean meal rose 0.7 percent to $439.10 for 2,000 pounds. The high-protein animal feed surged 34 percent last year.
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