Bloomberg News

Euro May Hit 3-Week Low, Credit Suisse Says: Technical Analysis

February 04, 2013

The euro may fall to its lowest level against the dollar in almost three weeks after failing to break a key level of resistance, according to Credit Suisse Group AG.

The 17-nation currency, which has gained 1.8 percent versus the greenback during the past two weeks, will target a support level of $1.3490 after failing to increase past $1.3711, Cilline Bain, a London-based technical analyst at Credit Suisse, wrote today in a client note. The euro might fall to $1.3257, its lowest level since Jan. 16, if it breaks through that support, Bain said.

“The market is fairly overextended with the extent of the rally over the last couple of weeks,” Bain said in a telephone interview. “The short-term upper trend line at $1.3490 is probably a natural area for the market to target on the corrective dip.”

The 17-nation currency decreased 0.6 percent to $1.3559 at 10:30 a.m. in New York after falling as much as 0.7 percent, the most since Jan. 18. The euro reached $1.3711 on Feb. 1, its highest level since November 2011.

A break above the resistance zone from $1.3711 to $1.3727 may result in a move higher to $1.3835, Bain said. That would be the euro’s highest level since November 2011. Credit Suisse has a year-end forecast of $1.40, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The European Central Bank will make its next policy decision on Feb. 7. The ECB, which has held its refinancing rate at 0.75 percent since July, will make no change, according to the median forecast of 58 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

“I would expect the catalyst for this whole corrective phase, if we were to see a deeper sell-off, to be the ECB,” Bain said.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Resistance refers to an area on a chart where sell orders may be clustered. Support is an area where there may be buy orders.

To contact the reporter on this story: Joseph Ciolli in New York at jciolli@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net


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