Bloomberg News

Mexico Economy Probably Grew 3.6% in 4th Quarter

January 31, 2013

The Mexican economy probably grew 3.6 percent in the final quarter of 2012 from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said yesterday in an e-mailed statement.

Gross domestic product probably expanded about 4 percent last year as domestic consumption continued advancing to an “elevated rate” and higher private investment created more formal jobs, according to the statement. Mexico had a budget deficit of 403.6 billion pesos ($31.6 billion) from January through December last year, the ministry said. Excluding investment by Pemex, as the state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos is known, Mexico posted a deficit of 92.1 billion pesos.

The ministry publishes an economic expansion estimate to inform the public about the nation’s outlook and not as a preliminary growth figure. The national statistics institute, or Inegi, will publish the official fourth-quarter gross domestic product figure on Feb. 18.

Mexico’s economic expansion is showing signs of slowing as growth unexpectedly came to a standstill last quarter in the U.S., the destination of 80 percent of the nation’s exports. Industrial production grew 0.9 percent in November from a year earlier, lower than economists expected and auto exports fell 9.7 percent on fewer shipments to other Latin American countries and the U.S.

Mexico’s economy probably grew 3.1 percent in the final quarter of 2012 from 3.3 percent in the previous three months, according to the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Economists polled by Bloomberg forecast GDP will rise 3.55 percent in this year, surpassing Brazil’s growth rate for a third year.

Budget

The administration of President Enrique Pena Nieto approved a 3.96 trillion-peso budget for 2013 with no deficit when investment in Pemex is excluded. Last year’s approved deficit was 0.4 percent of gross domestic product.

The nation’s debt is estimated to have reached 37.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2012 and is expected to decline to 37 percent this year, Miguel Messmacher, the deputy finance minister for revenue, said in a Dec. 7 interview.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nacha Cattan in Mexico City at ncattan@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andre Soliani at asoliani@bloomberg.net


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