Bloomberg News

Euro May Rise to 21-Month High Versus Yen: Technical Analysis

January 09, 2013

The euro may advance versus the yen to the strongest level in almost 21 months even as it approaches a key level of resistance, according to Credit Suisse Group AG, which cited technical indicators.

The shared currency, which is in an upward corrective period after falling to a 12-year low in July, has “gained traction” at 113.50 yen and should test 116.02, Cilline Bain, a London-based technical analyst at Credit Suisse, wrote today in a client note. A move past that resistance level may result in appreciation to 121.94, which would be the euro’s highest level versus the yen since April 2011, Bain said.

“The market continues a long-term uptrend from July lows,” Bain said in a telephone interview. “The next leg higher in this uptrend should bring us back up to around 116.”

The 17-nation currency increased 0.6 percent to 114.58 yen at 10:26 a.m. in New York, after falling as much as 0.3 percent. The euro reached 115.99 on Jan. 2, its highest level since July 2011.

A break below 113.50 may result in a move lower to 111.45, according to Bain. If the euro sees sustained depreciation below that support level, it could experience a “deeper correction” to 105.98, its lowest level since Dec. 10. Credit Suisse bank has a year-end forecast of 100 yen per euro, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“We would need a sustained move or weekly close below 111.45 for a decent correction back down to support at 105.98,” Bain said.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Resistance refers to an area on a chart where sell orders may be clustered. Support is an area where there may be buy orders.

To contact the reporter on this story: Joseph Ciolli in New York at jciolli@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net


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