Bloomberg News

Soybeans Drop as Supply Concern May Ease in U.S. and Brazil

November 09, 2012

Soybeans fell for a third day on speculation that a U.S. government report today will show supplies are more ample than previously estimated. Corn advanced and wheat rose in Paris.

U.S. soybean output may total 2.89 billion bushels, 1.1 percent more than forecast a month ago, signaling yields may have fared better during drought than expected, according to a Bloomberg survey before the U.S. Department of Agriculture updates domestic and world projections later today. Brazil may harvest 83 million metric tons of soybeans this season, more than the 82.8 million tons forecast last month, the Agriculture Ministry’s forecasting agency, known as Conab, said yesterday.

“There does appear to be more bullish sentiment in grains as we go into the report than oilseeds,” Erin FitzPatrick, an analyst at Rabobank International, said by telephone from London. “Conab raised its Brazil soybean expectations, so likely the USDA will follow suit. The weather there has improved a bit, although we’re still not as optimistic about the production numbers as they are.”

Soybeans for January delivery dropped 0.7 percent to $14.86 a bushel a bushel by 5:15 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, poised for a 2.5 percent loss this week. Corn for delivery in March rose 0.3 percent to $7.4525 a bushel, set for a second weekly advance.

The USDA may cut its outlook for the U.S. corn crop to 10.67 billion bushels, compared with an October forecast of 10.706 billion bushels, analysts said. The USDA report is set to be released at 8:30 a.m. in Washington today.

Global wheat stockpiles may total 171.5 million tons by the end of this marketing year on June 1, down from last month’s forecast of 173 million tons, the survey showed. The United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization said yesterday that inventories may total 166.7 million tons.

“Wheat supplies look set to tighten further,” Wayne Gordon, a commodity strategist at UBS AG in New York, said in a report yesterday. Poor crop conditions in the U.S., sub-optimal soil moisture in Russia, excessive rains in Argentina and declining production in Australia will “keep supply-side risks elevated for wheat going into the second quarter of 2013.”

Wheat for December delivery was little changed at $9.0125 a bushel in Chicago, paring this week’s gain to 4.3 percent. Yesterday, the price rose to $9.05 a bushel, the highest for a most-active contract since Sept. 28.

In Paris, milling-wheat for January delivery climbed 0.7 percent to 277.50 euros ($352.79) a ton on NYSE Liffe, after yesterday rising as high as 279.25 euros, a record for the contract. Feed-wheat futures advanced 0.9 percent to 228.50 pounds ($364) a ton in London, after reaching 229 pounds a ton yesterday, the contract’s all-time high.

To contact the reporters on this story: Whitney McFerron in London at wmcferron1@bloomberg.net; Luzi Ann Javier in Singapore at ljavier@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net


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