There is “no indication” that German corn yields will be below average after a heat wave in August, Alfred C. Toepfer International GmbH said.
Germany may produce 5.24 million metric tons of corn this year, little changed from last season and down from last month’s forecast of 5.29 million tons, the Hamburg-based trader said today in an e-mailed report. Production in the 27-nation European Union may be 53.27 million tons, down from last month’s estimate of 54.58 million tons and last year’s harvest of 65.35 million tons, it said.
Global benchmark corn prices reached a record $8.49 a bushel in August on the Chicago Board of Trade as dry weather from the U.S. to Russia and eastern Europe reduced yields. While the crop fell 13 percent since then, it’s still the fifth-best performer this year on the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities.
“We expect the maize prices to stabilize in the next few months,” Toepfer said in the report. Maize is a term used for corn. “Furthermore, in various consumer regions the price for maize is below that for wheat. This is the reason why we expect an increase in demand,” as both grains can be used in feed, it said.
EU wheat production may total 123.54 million tons, down from the September forecast of 124.29 million and output last year of 129.64 million tons, Toepfer said. In Germany, the harvest may total 22.65 million tons, less than the September projection of 22.74 million tons.
EU rapeseed output may total 19.38 million tons, up from last month’s forecast at 19.18 million tons, the trader said. Production in Germany may be 5.03 million tons, unchanged from last month’s projection and up from 3.9 million tons in the previous season. Germany is the EU’s second-largest producer of rapeseed and wheat, after France, according to Toepfer.
The rapeseed area in Germany may be “expanded significantly” in the next season as winter-crop planting is progressing smoothly for the first time in three years, Toepfer said. Planting was “reduced drastically” last year because of rains in northern areas, it said.
“Though the seeding of winter grain was slowed by recent rainfall, there is still enough time to finish up seeding,” Toepfer said.
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