Bloomberg News

Obama Leads Polls in Nevada, Ohio While Colorado Tied

October 26, 2012

Polls of likely voters in three competitive states showed President Barack Obama leading in Nevada and Ohio and tied with Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Colorado.

A CNN/ORC International poll released today found Obama ahead of Romney, 50 percent to 46 percent, among likely voters in Ohio. No Republican presidential nominee has ever been elected without carrying the state.

The Oct. 23-25 survey of 741 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Obama led Romney by four points, 51 percent to 47 percent, among likely voters in Ohio in a CNN poll taken earlier this month.

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College survey taken Oct. 23-24 showed Obama with a 50 percent to 47 percent edge in Nevada and tied with Romney at 48 percent in Colorado.

Obama led Romney among likely voters in Colorado, 50 percent to 45 percent, in an NBC/Journal/Marist poll taken Sept. 16-18, and held a two-point lead in Nevada, 49 percent to 47 percent, in a Sept. 23-25 survey.

Colorado, with nine electoral votes, and Nevada, with six, are among the nine states that Obama and Romney are spending their time and money in during the final weeks of the campaign. Political analysts of both parties say that these states will determine the next who wins the presidency.

Surge in Enthusiasm

“As Election Day approaches, both candidates are experiencing a surge in enthusiasm among their supporters,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, New York.

Romney continues to lead Obama in daily tracking polls of likely voters nationwide. He is ahead in the Oct. 22-25 ABC News/Washington Post survey, 49 percent to 48 percent, within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, and by 51 percent to 46 percent in the Oct. 19-25 Gallup poll, which has an error margin of plus or minus two percentage points.

In Colorado, likely women voters said they back Obama, 52 percent to 45 percent, while Romney led among men, 51 percent to 43 percent, according to the NBC/Journal/Marist poll released yesterday. Fifty-one percent viewed Obama favorably and 46 unfavorably.

Obama had an edge among women in Nevada, 52 percent to 46 percent, and among men, 48 percent to 47 percent. He was viewed favorably by voters, 52 percent to 44 percent.

Romney’s Favorability

While voters in both states viewed Romney unfavorably last month, pluralities now have favorable opinions of the Republican challenger, 48 percent to 47 percent in Colorado and 48 percent to 46 percent in Nevada.

Likely voters in both states said Romney would do a better job with the economy than Obama by identical 49 percent to 46 percent scores. In both states, Obama had small advantages on the question last month.

The survey of 1,128 likely voters in Colorado had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, and the poll of 1,042 likely voters in Nevada had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan D. Salant in Washington at jsalant@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jeanne Cummings at jcummings21@bloomberg.net.


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