Polish industrial output shrank more than economists estimated last month, raising expectations the central bank will cut interest rates as early November to help avert a recession.
Production fell 5.2 percent from a year earlier, the first decline since 2009, after a 0.5 percent increase in August, the Central Statistics Office in Warsaw said today. That was more than the median estimate for a 3.9 percent contraction in a Bloomberg survey of 32 economists. Output rose 6.1 percent from the previous month.
The central bank, the only one in the European Union to raise borrowing costs this year, has kept its main rate at the highest since 2009 even as policy makers around the world ease conditions to avert a global slump. The Monetary Policy Council said after the Oct. 3 meeting that it may cut interest rates in November should new data confirm a “protracted” economic slowdown and “limited” risk of price pressure.
“The numbers this week will confirm they should cut in November,” Lars Christensen, chief emerging markets analyst at Danske Bank A/S (DANSKE) in Copenhagen, said by phone yesterday. “We don’t have any growth.”
Poland’s economy expanded 2.4 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace in almost three years. On Oct. 12, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, facing down a surging political opposition, won a parliamentary confidence vote after pledging to pave the way for 300 billion zloty ($96 billion) in investments to spur growth in the EU’s biggest eastern economy.
Producer prices, an early indicator of inflationary trends, rose 1.8 percent in September from a year earlier, more than the 1.7 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 23 economists, the statistics office reported in a separate statement. Producer prices increased 0.5 percent on the month.
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