Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS:US) expects emerging markets to provide a greater share of its revenue once the global economy recovers, after proving “resilient” in the current crisis, Vice Chairman J. Michael Evans said.
Emerging markets may contribute growth in all three of the bank’s basic businesses, Evans said in an interview with Bloomberg Television from Seoul today, listing mergers and acquisitions, asset management and securities. He declined to give specific revenue figures.
“We could be in a challenging environment for the foreseeable future,” Evans said. “If things even get a bit better in Europe and the U.S., we can count on” emerging markets to contribute more, he said.
Emerging economies have expanded at an average annual pace of 6.2 percent during the past five years, outstripping developed markets’ 0.8 percent pace, and will grow 5.3 percent this year, compared with 1.3 percent, according to data and forecasts from the International Monetary Fund. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) has climbed 8.3 percent this year, compared with an 11 percent gain in the MSCI World (MXWO) Index of developed countries.
Weakness in global markets has made it easier for China to shift toward an economic-growth model that’s less dependent on exports and more on domestic demand, said Evans.
The country is responding to the slowdown in the U.S. and Europe with “significant structural reform,” Evans, who oversees the New York-based bank’s businesses in emerging markets, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today from Seoul.
“It would have been a more painful transition if that transition was required in a stronger market, particularly in the Western world,” Evans said. In “the last four or five years, China has had an opportunity to observe that the export- driven model of growth is no longer a sustainable model.”
President Hu Jintao pledged last month to boost domestic demand and promote more balanced growth as a slowdown in exports puts pressure on the world’s second-largest economy. Spending on roads, bridges, subways and other public-works projects surged in 2009 and 2010 as much of a 4 trillion-yuan ($636 billion) stimulus and an unprecedented expansion in bank lending was directed toward local government projects.
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