Bloomberg News

Jobless Rate Likely Rose in U.S. as Employers Limited Hiring

October 05, 2012

Jobless Rate Probably Climbed as U.S. Employers Limited Hiring

Applied Materials Inc., the largest producer of chipmaking equipment, said this week it plans to eliminate 900 to 1,300 jobs, or 6 percent to 9 percent of its worldwide workforce. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

The jobless rate in the U.S. probably rose in September as employers limited hiring, keeping the labor market’s lack of progress at the center of Federal Reserve deliberations and the presidential election.

Unemployment increased to 8.2 percent last month from 8.1 percent in August, according to the median projection of 88 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Payrolls climbed by 115,000 workers, less than the 139,000 average over the first eight months of the year, the report may also show.

“We’re running in place,” said Ethan Harris, co-head of global economics research at Bank of America Corp. in New York. “A gain of around 100,000 or so jobs is just enough to absorb the population of new workers.”

Joblessness that’s exceeded 8 percent for an unprecedented 43 months is restraining incomes and impeding consumers’ ability to support the economy as global demand and business investment wane. Today’s release marks the second-to-last jobs report before the November elections as President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney debate who’s best equipped to boost employment.

The Labor Department will issue the report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Payroll estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from gains of 60,000 to 165,000.

September’s projected increase suggests headcounts rose by an average of 117,000 each month in the third quarter, the second-weakest pace in two years.

Private payrolls, which exclude government jobs, probably climbed by 130,000 after rising 103,000 in August, economists anticipate the report will show.

Persistent Unemployment

The unemployment rate, derived from a survey of households, has topped 8 percent since February 2009, the longest stretch in monthly records dating back to 1948. The U.S. economy has so far recovered about 4.1 million of the 8.8 million jobs lost in the wake of the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009.

Only one president, Ronald Reagan, has been re-elected since World War II with unemployment above 6 percent. On Election Day 1984, the rate was at 7.2 percent, having fallen almost three percentage points in the previous 18 months.

To boost employment, Obama last September proposed the American Jobs Act, which would cut payroll taxes for workers and employers, provide aid to states and increase spending on public-works projects. Romney has vowed to create 12 million new jobs as part of a plan that includes developing the energy sector and reducing taxes. The two debated this week.

Fiscal Cliff

Companies, nonetheless, may hold back on hiring plans amid concern over Europe’s weakening economy and the so-called fiscal cliff, a combination of tax increases and government spending cuts that will occur next year if Congress doesn’t act.

The share of U.S. chief executive officers planning to add employees or invest more in the next six months declined last quarter, and a bigger share said they’d cut jobs and spending, according to a Business Roundtable survey last month. The group’s economic-outlook index slumped to the lowest since 2009.

“Over the past several months, we’ve seen the economy lose some of the momentum it had generated coming into the year,” Carl Camden, president and chief executive officer at temporary- staff provider Kelly Services Inc. (KELYA:US), said during a Sept. 13 conference. About a year ago, “we were seeing good signs of a fairly solid recovery. But all of that is definitely slowed and you see that in staffing volumes around the world.”

Applied Materials Inc., the largest producer of chipmaking equipment, said this week it plans to eliminate 900 to 1,300 jobs, or 6 percent to 9 percent of its worldwide workforce. Campbell Soup Co. (CPB:US), the world’s largest soup maker, said Sept. 27 it plans to close two plants that employ more than 700 in the U.S. as demand declines and productivity improves.

Bond Purchases

Warning that it can’t combat a slowdown in growth caused by stricter fiscal policy, the Fed last month said it would hold its target interest rate near zero until at least mid-2015 to stimulate more hiring. The central bank also began a third round of stimulus, buying $40 billion in mortgage bonds a month. The S&P 500 rose to 1,465.77 the next day, the highest close since December 2007.

The S&P 500 Index last week had its biggest weekly slump since June amid disappointing economic data, including a plunge in orders for durable goods and stalled consumer spending.

“We’re looking for ongoing, sustained improvement in the labor market,” Chairman Bernanke said told reporters following the announcement on Sept. 13. “What we’ve seen in the last six months isn’t it.”

                         Bloomberg Survey

================================================================
                           Nonfarm  Private     Manu Unemploy
                          Payrolls Payrolls Payrolls     Rate
                            ,000’s   ,000’s   ,000’s        %
================================================================
Date of Release              10/05    10/05    10/05    10/05
Observation Period           Sept.    Sept.    Sept.    Sept.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Median                         115      130        0     8.2%
Average                        115      127        0     8.2%
High Forecast                  165      165       10     8.3%
Low Forecast                    60       85      -13     8.0%
Number of Participants          92       53       27       88
Previous                        96      103      -15     8.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------
4CAST                          135      155     ---      8.2%
ABN Amro                       110      125     ---      8.2%
Acciones y Valores             100     ---      ---      8.2%
Action Economics               120      130       -5     8.2%
Ameriprise Financial           125      132        2     8.2%
Banca Aletti                   103      130       -5     8.1%
Bank of the West               110      120      -10     8.2%
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi       120      130     ---      8.1%
Banorte-IXE                    105     ---      ---      8.2%
Bantleon Bank AG               100     ---      ---      8.2%
Barclays                       100      110     ---      8.1%
Bayerische Landesbank          115     ---      ---      8.2%
BBVA                            95      100        5     8.2%
BMO Capital Markets            110     ---      ---      8.2%
BNP Paribas                     75       85        0     8.2%
BofA Merrill Lynch              90      105     ---      8.2%
Briefing.com                   120      130     ---      8.2%
Capital Economics              100     ---      ---      8.2%
CIBC World Markets             138     ---      ---      8.1%
Citi                           110      115        0     8.2%
ClearView Economics            100      105      -10     8.3%
Comerica                       100     ---         5     8.1%
Commerzbank AG                 120      130     ---      8.1%
Credit Agricole CIB            135     ---      ---      8.2%
Credit Suisse                   95      125     ---      8.2%
CTI Capital                    125     ---      ---      ---
Daiwa Securities America       120     ---      ---      8.2%
Danske Bank                    135      140     ---      8.1%
DekaBank                       110     ---      ---      8.2%
Desjardins Group               130     ---      ---      8.2%
Deutsche Bank Securities       110      120     ---      8.1%
Deutsche Postbank AG           100     ---      ---      8.2%
DZ Bank                        130     ---      ---      8.1%
Exane                          145     ---      ---      8.2%
First Trust Advisors           115      150        5     8.1%
FTN Financial                  140      145     ---      8.1%
Goldman, Sachs & Co.           100     ---      ---      8.1%
Helaba                         125     ---      ---      8.2%
High Frequency Economics       135      145     ---      8.1%
Horizon Investments             80     ---      ---      8.2%
HSBC Markets                   140      150       -5     8.1%
Hugh Johnson Advisors          136      135       10     8.1%
IDEAglobal                     125      140       10     8.2%
IHS Global Insight             120     ---      ---      8.2%
Informa Global Markets         115      125        0     8.1%
ING Financial Markets          125      140       10     8.2%
Insight Economics              125     ---      ---      8.1%
Intesa Sanpaulo                110     ---      ---      8.2%
Iur Capital                    110     ---      ---      8.1%
J.P. Morgan Chase              100      110        5     8.1%
Janney Montgomery Scott        121      131       -1     8.1%
Jefferies & Co.                120      135       -5     8.0%
JH Cohn                        140     ---      ---      ---
John
Hancock Financial              143     ---      ---      8.1%
Landesbank Berlin              100     ---      ---      8.2%
Landesbank BW                   60     ---      ---      8.2%
LCA Consultores                135     ---      ---      ---
Lloyds Bank                     95      110     ---      8.2%
Maria Fiorini Ramirez          115      125     ---      ---
Market Securities              137     ---      ---      8.1%
MET Capital Advisors            90     ---      ---      8.1%
Modal Asset                   ---       162     ---      ---
Moody’s Analytics              115      135       -5     8.2%
Morgan Stanley & Co.           125     ---      ---      8.2%
National Bank Financial         90     ---      ---      8.2%
Natixis                        140     ---      ---      8.1%
Nomura Securities              160      165       10     8.1%
Nord/LB                         85     ---       -10     8.1%
OSK Group/DMG                  130     ---      ---      8.2%
Oxford Economics                92      100      -13     8.2%
Paragon Research               145     ---      ---      8.1%
Pierpont Securities             95      110     ---      8.2%
PineBridge Investments         125     ---      ---      8.1%
PNC Bank                       100      115        5     8.2%
Prestige Economics             115      120     ---      8.1%
Raiffeisenbank International   110      130     ---      8.1%
Raymond James                  120      110     ---      8.1%
RBC Capital Markets            100      110     ---      8.2%
RBS Securities                 120      130     ---      8.2%
Regions Financial              124      128        3     8.2%
Renaissance Macro Research     100      110     ---      8.1%
Scotiabank                     100     ---      ---      8.2%
SISR                           125      131     ---      8.1%
Societe Generale                93      108     ---      8.0%
Southern Polytechnic State     165      155     ---      8.0%
Standard Chartered             150      160     ---      8.1%
Stone & McCarthy               130      125        2     8.2%
TD Securities                  140      145        0     8.2%
UBS                             85      100     ---      8.2%
University of Maryland         111      116       -5     8.2%
Wells Fargo & Co.              100     ---      ---      8.1%
Westpac Banking Co.            110     ---      ---      8.2%
Wrightson ICAP                 130      140     ---      8.1%
================================================================

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Kowalski in Washington at akowalski13@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net


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Companies Mentioned

  • KELYA
    (Kelly Services Inc)
    • $16.21 USD
    • -0.22
    • -1.36%
  • CPB
    (Campbell Soup Co)
    • $42.92 USD
    • 0.02
    • 0.05%
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