Bloomberg News

Intrade Puts Obama Re-Election Odds at 56.8% After Speech

August 31, 2012

The odds that President Barack Obama will be re-elected on Nov. 6 rose to 56.8 percent after the Republicans concluded their nominating convention, according to online prediction market Intrade.

Obama’s odds, at 10:21 a.m. New York time, compared with a 43.3 percent chance for a victory by Republican nominee Mitt Romney, according to bets made at the Dublin-based bookmaker. Obama’s chances increased from 55.7 percent yesterday, while Romney’s dropped slightly from 43.4 percent. The highest odds for Obama this year were 61.4 percent on March 12 and again on April 16.

In his speech last night accepting the nomination, Romney reached out to disaffected Obama supporters, framing the election as a choice between visions of the role of government in America. Acceptance speeches, broadcast during prime-time television hours, offer candidates a chance to set their image and themes going into the final months of the presidential election.

All Intrade contracts pay out $10 for winners, so a price of $5.68 implies a 56.8 percent chance.

To contact the reporter on this story: Steve Walsh in Washington at swalsh@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Katherine Rizzo at krizzo5@bloomberg.net


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