More monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve may be “coming quite soon,” driving down the dollar and buoying riskier assets, according to Jens Nordvig, managing director of currency research at Nomura Holdings Inc. in New York.
Nordvig spoke in a telephone interview after the release of minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 31-Aug. 1 meeting. Many policy makers said additional stimulus would probably be needed soon unless the economy shows signs of a durable pickup, the minutes showed.
On the FOMC minutes:
“The text was reasonably clear in suggesting that more stimulus is potentially coming and coming quite soon.
“Relative to the expectations that we had going into this that the QE idea had been pushed out in the future, that was a little bit of a surprise, and that’s the reaction you’re seeing in the dollar.
“It’s not a huge move, but it’s very broad-based. We’ve seen it both in the yen and the higher-yielding crosses. It’s pretty much across the board.”
On the impact of more easing on riskier assets:
“It’s also something that’s very important for risk assets globally.
“We’re going into the September period, and a lot of people are concerned about the European situation. But if you have an expansion announced by the Fed, that could be something that really underpins risk assets to a meaningful degree, especially since expectations had really pushed out the announcement of something of that nature to much later.”
On improving U.S. data and optimism about Europe’s crisis:
“The text and minutes were that the data needed to improve quite meaningfully for them to not think additional accommodation was warranted.
“There has been some improvement in some indicators, but if you look at everything in a holistic perspective, the data has been quite tentative. We have to be very open-minded that we might get something in short order.”
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