Prices of goods imported into the U.S. unexpectedly fell in July for a fourth consecutive month, reflecting lower costs for fuel and food.
The 0.6 percent drop in the import-price index followed a 2.4 percent decline in June, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. Economists projected the July gauge would rise 0.2 percent, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Costs excluding fuel decreased 0.4 percent, the biggest decline in two years.
American companies and consumers may continue to see limited cost pressures abroad as the slowing global economy reduces demand for raw materials. A stronger dollar also affords U.S. businesses the room to hold the line on prices, allowing the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates near zero.
“I don’t think there’s much underlying, non-petroleum price inflation,” Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York, said before today’s report. “With the global slowdown, you’re going to see some discounting of product.” Ricchiuto predicted a 0.2 percent decline in import prices.
Projections for July import prices ranged from a decrease of 1 percent to an increase of 1.8 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey of 44 economists.
The import-price index is the first of three monthly price gauges from the Labor Department. Producer prices are due Aug. 14, and the consumer-price index on the following day.
The cost of imported petroleum products decreased 1.6 percent in July from the prior month and was down 12 percent from a year earlier, the biggest 12-month decrease since September 2009.
Imported food and beverages were 1.2 percent less expensive last month, today’s report showed.
The decrease in the cost of food from overseas may help to offset building pressures in the U.S., where a drought in the Midwest has started to affect some food prices, driving up corn and limiting the cost of beef. More expensive corn feed has ranchers sending more of their cattle to market, which means a smaller herd and higher prices early next year.
“Longer-term, we expect demand for beef will rebound causing cost to increase, while herd rebuilding will take several years,” Stephen Hare, chief financial officer of Wendy’s Co. (WEN:US), a fast-food retailer based in Dublin, Ohio, said on an Aug. 9 earnings call. “This drought will have an impact.”
At the same time, the dollar has increased in value since the end of January as concerns about Europe’s debt crisis drove investors to the safety of the greenback, making foreign goods cheaper. It has climbed 2.2 percent since Jan. 31 through yesterday against a trade-weighted basket of currencies from its biggest trading partners, according to Fed data.
Prices for imported automobiles and parts rose 0.4 percent after 0.1 percent decreases in the prior two months, today’s report showed. The cost of imported capital goods fell 0.1 percent from the previous month.
The cost of imported goods from China decreased 0.2 percent in July and was up 0.8 percent over the past 12 months.
Imported goods from Japan were little changed, while the cost of goods from the European Union dropped 0.1 percent. Goods from Mexico decreased 0.4 percent.
U.S. export prices climbed 0.5 percent in July, today’s report showed, after falling 1.7 percent the previous month. Prices of farm exports climbed 6.4 percent and those of non-farm goods decreased 0.3 percent.
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