Bloomberg News

Vietnam 2012 Growth May Slow to 5.3%, Commission Says

August 03, 2012

(Corrects spelling of official’s name in sixth paragraph.)

Vietnam’s economic growth may slow to 5.3 percent this year as local and overseas demand cools, according to a government advisory committee, signaling policy makers are accepting slower growth that will ease inflation.

“It’s good enough, given the current difficult market situation domestically and internationally,” Vu Viet Ngoan, chairman of the National Financial Supervisory Commission, said in a telephone interview today. The economy expanded 5.9 percent in 2011 and the government’s official 2012 growth target has already been reduced to 6 percent from as much as 6.5 percent.

Vietnam has struggled with stagnant bank lending and the fastest inflation in Southeast Asia, which crimped corporate expansion and domestic demand. Easing price pressures this year have given the central bank room to cut interest rates five times to shield the economy from Europe’s debt crisis and China’s growth slowdown, reversing monetary tightening undertaken last year to prevent overheating.

“Downward growth revisions from policy makers suggest the focus on macro stability remains,” said Prakriti Sofat, a regional economist at Barclays Plc in Singapore. “Policymaker comfort with economic growth moderation will provide more confidence to market participants that Vietnam will not undertake additional aggressive easing which may raise risks to macro stability.”

Annual inflation may be “around 5 percent” with month-on- month gains for the rest for the year on government spending, Ngoan said. Vietnam’s consumer prices climbed 5.35 percent in July from a year earlier after rising 6.9 percent in June.

Credit growth has been hampered by rising bad debt at lenders, which Government Office Chairman Vu Duc Dam said this week continues to be on an “uptrend.”

Total assets of the Vietnamese banking system rose to 4,906 trillion dong as of June 30, an increase of 0.4 percent from 4,887 trillion dong as of May 31, according to data on the central bank’s website.

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen in Hanoi at uyen1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephanie Phang at sphang@bloomberg.net


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