Evraz Plc (EVR), Russia’s largest producer of steel by output, appears “too ambitious” with its forecast of $5 billion in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization for 2016 as prices fall, Morgan Stanley (MS) said.

“In our base case forecast, the company will deliver 38 percent less, or $3.1 billion, in 2016,” Dmitry Kolomytsyn, a Morgan Stanley analyst in Moscow, said today in a report.

Evraz assumes average steel prices in 2016 will be 10 percent higher than 2011, while Morgan Stanley expects a 10 percent to 20 percent decline, according to Kolomytsyn.

Hot-rolled steel coil exported from the Black Sea is near a two-year low of about $540 a metric ton, according to Metal Bulletin data. Evraz posted Ebitda of $2.8 billion last year.

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To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Viljoen at jviljoen@bloomberg.net