Bloomberg News

U.S., Canada to Drive 2013 Non-OPEC Oil Supply Gains, IEA Says

July 12, 2012

Oil supplies from outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may increase 1.3 percent next year as the U.S. and Canada increase production of unconventional oil, the International Energy Agency said.

Non-OPEC supply may increase by 700,000 barrels a day from 53.2 million this year as output grows from tight oil in the U.S. and Canadian synthetic crude, the Paris-based agency said today in its monthly Oil Market Report.

“The majority of the growth this decade has been and will continue to be oriented toward the Americas,” the IEA said. “With quickly declining offshore Brazilian production, the major source of growth outside OPEC countries will be the U.S. and Canada.”

Output in Texas could climb above 2 million barrels a day next year, a level not seen since 1988, as tight oil from the Eagle Ford play could add 180,000 barrels a day, while North Dakota’s Bakken tight oil should increase daily production by about 130,000 barrels a day, the agency said.

The biggest additions to Canadian supply will come from Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)’s Kearl bitumen mining project and Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)’s steam-assisted Firebag project, adding 50,000 barrels a day and 20,000 barrels, respectively.

Brazil Growth

Brazil will add about 140,000 barrels a day in output in 2013, to 2.4 million barrels a day, as the Papa Terra, Parque das Baleias and Sapinhoa fields increase capacity with new projects.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4) has revised its daily production target to 2.5 million barrels in 2016 from a previously announced 3.1 million in 2015, and the new goal is “more measured and realistic,” the IEA said.

Russian liquids output may slip 0.4 percent to 10.7 million barrels a day as planned changes to the country’s tax regime will not make a big impact in 2013, the agency said.

“We expect that producers have been able to benefit from the low-hanging fruit in 2011 and 2012, but that they will be harder-pressed in 2013 to show comparable gains,” according to the IEA.

Kazakhstan’s production is expected to remain at about 1.6 million barrels a day and output at Azerbaijan’s largest oil project, the BP Plc-led Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli project, will decline by about 2 percent in 2013 to 720,000 barrels a day, according to the agency.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jake Rudnitsky in Moscow at jrudnitsky@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephen Voss at sev@bloomberg.net


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