Bloomberg News

Poland May Mull Rate Cuts Amid Benign Inflation, Belka Says

July 12, 2012

Poland’s central bank doesn’t predict a pickup in inflation, leaving it free to cut interest rates to boost economic growth if required, Governor Marek Belka said.

“We have the ability to use interest rates to stimulate the economy, if needed,” Belka told reporters today during a trip to Beijing. Any increase in the inflation rate in the next few months would probably stem from the statistical base of low price growth from a year ago, he said.

Economic growth may decelerate to about 2 percent from a year earlier for one or two quarters, Belka said, adding that “if that were to happen, the slowdown will be followed by a rebound.” The central bank left borrowing costs unchanged for a second month last week, when Belka said that he’s “more worried about economic growth and less worried about inflation” than a month ago.

Tightening Bias

The central bank raised rates in May and has maintained a bias toward tightening since then as inflation exceeded the target for 20 months. The economy is set to grow 2.7 percent this year compared with 4.3 percent last year, according to the European Commission. Poland’s central bank is the only one in the European Union to raise borrowing costs this year.

Polish companies are less confident about their business prospects in the third quarter as the outlook for new orders worsened “significantly,” the Warsaw-based Narodowy Bank Polski said today in a survey of 1,185 companies published on its website.

The number of companies that see excessive inventories rose 2.7 percentage points to 13.4 percent, while capacity utilization dropped 1.1 percentage point to 79.9 percent in the second quarter, according to the survey.

“Confidence fell in expectations for the next 12 months as well, though companies predict a gradual weakening of the growth dynamics rather than sudden changes of a crisis nature,” the bank said.

Today’s survey showed inflationary expectations by Polish companies declined for a second quarter, the bank said. Companies foresee a decline in prices of commodities and other materials used in manufacturing as well as in prices of their own products.

The zloty declined to 4.203 per euro at 3:30 p.m. in Warsaw from 4.1869 late yesterday. The government’s two-year bond was unchanged at 4.6 percent, while the yield on 10-year bonds fell to 5.03 percent, a six-year low.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dorota Bartyzel in Warsaw at dbartyzel@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Balazs Penz at bpenz@bloomberg.net


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