Global oilseed output may jump 8.4 percent in the next season, as South American soybean production recovers from the previous year’s drought, Hamburg-based researcher Oil World said.
World production of 10 oilseeds may climb to 471.9 million metric tons in the 2012-13 year beginning Sept. 1, up from a revised estimate of 435.2 million for 2011-12, the researcher said today in an e-mailed report. Farmers worldwide may harvest 273.9 million tons of soybeans, up 15 percent from a year earlier, while rapeseed output may increase 2.3 percent to 61 million tons.
Brazil’s soybean production may total 78.5 million tons, rebounding from 66.4 million a year earlier when drought hurt crops, Oil World said. Argentina’s harvest may climb to 55 million tons from 40.5 million, while output in the U.S. may rise to 87.8 million from 83.2 million. The U.S., Brazil and Argentina are the world’s biggest growers of the oilseed.
“Farmers in South America will clearly favor soybean plantings at the expense of grains,” Oil World said. “With normal weather there should also be much less acreage abandonment, and we expect that the soybean area available for harvest will increase steeply.”
Soybean supplies will remain tight during the first half of the 2012-13 season because South American harvests won’t begin until 2013, Oil World said. Global stockpiles may drop to 54.7 million tons on Aug. 31, before rising the following year to 61.7 million, the second-lowest number since 2008-09.
Dry weather in the U.S. may also hurt developing soybean crops, especially if conditions persist until August, when plants enter the pod-setting and filling stages, Oil World said.
“It has become unfavorably dry and hot in several parts of the Midwest and the southeast, reducing soil moisture supplies and resulting in a deterioration in soybean and corn crop conditions,” Oil World said. “This is reason for concern, primarily for corn which had entered its important stage of pollination. There is still time for improvement for soybeans.”
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