European Union carbon permits were unchanged near a three-month high after trading volumes surged in the final 10 minutes of the session on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.
The benchmark emissions contract closed at 8.06 euros ($10.07) a metric ton. They earlier today dropped as much as 1.6 percent and rose as much as 2.2 percent.
Allowances jumped yesterday to their highest in more than three months in intraday trading as regulators in Brussels considered temporarily withholding supply sold in auctions in the three years starting next year. Carbon has risen 27 percent this month.
It has the potential to “spike or shoot higher quickly,” said Brett Genus, a technical analyst with OTC Europe LLP in London. The Relative Strength Index, a technical indicator that is near its strongest since the three months through March last year when permits were above 14 euros a ton, shows that while the market may be overbought, it still has the potential to surge, Genus said today by phone.
The RSI shows how rapidly prices advanced or dropped during a specified time period.
Carbon for December next year was unchanged at 8.53 euros a ton on ICE, after earlier reaching 8.73 euros, the highest since March 16. There were 1.2 million tons traded in the last 10 minutes, compared with 16.9 million tons for the whole 10-hour session.
“The potential for the withholding of allowances to fundamentally tighten the vintage 2013 contract has likely provided the recent strength in the price,” Eric Bickel, an analyst at Summit Energy Services in Louisville, Kentucky, said today by e-mail. “RSI could reinforce that direction somewhat from a technical perspective.”
German power for 2013 moved 0.6 percent higher to 48.80 euros a megawatt-hour, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg. U.K. gas for the six months through September next year rose 0.3 percent.
United Nations Certified Emission Reduction credits for December gained 3 cents to 3.99 euros a ton on ICE. The contract’s volume traded jumped 26 percent to 6.8 million tons, the most since Nov. 25.
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