Forward markets signaled increased stress in the money markets as traders raise bets for the gap between the London interbank offered rate and federal funds as Spain’s bond yields rose to a euro-era record after the country’s credit rating was cut to one level above junk.
Predictions in the forward market for Libor-OIS, a gauge of banks’ reluctance to lend, rose to 36 basis points from 34.9 basis points yesterday, according to the second rolling three month so-called FRA/OIS spread.
Three-month London interbank offered rate, or Libor, which represents the rate at which banks say it would cost to borrow from another, was 0.46785 percent, where it has held since June 1, according to the British Bankers’ Association. The spot Libor-OIS spread was unchanged at 29.8 basis points.
Overnight index swaps, or OIS, give traders predictions on where the Fed’s effective funds rate will average for the term of the swap. The central bank’s target rate is set in a range of zero to 0.25 percent.
The difference between the two-year swap rate and the comparable-maturity Treasury note yield, known as the swap spread, widened to 31.25 basis points from 30.44 basis points. The gap is a gauge of investors’ perceptions of U.S. banking sector credit risk as swap rates are derived from expectations for dollar Libor. Swap rates serve as benchmarks for investors in many types of debt, including mortgage-backed and auto-loan securities.
The cost for European banks to convert euro-denominated payment streams into dollars-based funding via the cross currency swaps market increased. The three-month cross-currency basis swap was 56.7 basis points below Euribor, compared to 54.7 basis points below yesterday.
The Euribor-OIS spread, the difference between the euro interbank offered rate and overnight indexed swaps, held steady. The measure of banks’ reluctance to lend to one another was little changed at 38 basis points.
The seasonally adjusted amount of U.S. commercial paper fell $14.7 billion to $1.014 trillion in the week ended June 6, according to Federal Reserve data. That was the first contraction in six weeks.
The price on one-year cross-currency basis swaps between yen and U.S. dollars was minus 38.3 basis points, from minus 36.7 basis points yesterday. A negative swap price indicates investors are willing to receive reduced interest payments on the yen they lend in order to obtain the needed financing in dollars.
Foreign-exchange swaps are typically for periods of less than a year, while cross-currency basis swaps usually range from one to 30 years. The latter are agreements in which a person borrows in one currency and simultaneously lends in a different currency. The trade involves the exchange of two different floating-rate payments, each denominated in a different currency and based on a different index.
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