Bloomberg News

Pena Nieto Sees Lead Narrow in Poll as PRI Majority at Risk

June 05, 2012

Mexican presidential front-runner Enrique Pena Nieto saw his lead narrow and support for his party decrease enough to put winning a congressional majority at risk, according to the latest poll.

Pena Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, had 35.8 percent support, from 35.6 percent last week, while Lopez Obrador of the Party of the Democratic Revolution gained 24 percent backing from 21.7 percent, polling company Consulta Mitofsky said in an e-mailed report. Pena Nieto’s lead has narrowed to 12 percentage points from 17.5 points last month, the closest since campaigning started March 30.

Lopez Obrador’s advantage has put him firmly in second place. Polls have shown him chipping away at Pena Nieto’s lead after thousands of students marched in major cities against the front-runner. The percentage of respondents who said they would vote for the PRI in Congress fell close to the threshold of 42.2 percent, which Mitofsky says is the minimum needed to gain a majority in both houses.

“At this moment the party is at risk of not winning a majority,” Ana Hernandez, a research manager at Mitofsky, said in a phone interview.

The PRI had 44.2 percent support among respondents asked who they’d vote for in Congress. It was the lowest number the party received since the campaign started, the poll shows.

Josefina Vazquez Mota of the ruling National Action Party had 20.8 percent support compared to last week’s 20.4 percent, according to Mitofsky. The poll of 1,000 potential voters was taken June 1 to June 3.

The student marches, along with debates over candidates’ spending, are affecting the polls, Mitofsky said in its report.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nacha Cattan in Mexico City at ncattan@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Joshua Goodman at jgoodman19@bloomberg.net


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