Bloomberg News

Russian Grain-Crop Forecast Lowered on Weather at ProZerno

May 25, 2012

Russia’s farmers will harvest 93.2 million metric tons of grain in the coming 2012-13 season, less than previously estimated, because of dry weather, according to OOO ProZerno.

The prior forecast made last month was for a 95.5 million- ton crop, Vladimir Petrichenko, director of the Moscow-based consultancy, said by phone today. ProZerno cut its estimate for the wheat harvest by 4.1 percent to 54.2 million tons and reduced its barley-crop forecast by 2.3 percent to 16.8 million tons, he said.

Crops in southern Russia have been damaged by a month of dryness, helping wheat prices to jump 16 percent last week in Chicago trading. ProZerno’s latest forecasts account for the positive effect of rains that began to fall in the country’s south this week, according to Petrichenko.

“The main reason for the lower estimates is unfavorable weather conditions for grains’ development in the south and some parts of the Black Earth and Volga areas,” he said.

Development of plantings this month is above average and improved from April in the western part of the Black Earth area, central Russia, the Ural region and parts of the Volga area, Petrichenko said.

Grain exports from Russia in the current season running through June will come to about 25.5 million tons by the end of this month, with another 1 million to 1.2 million tons to be shipped out next month, Petrichenko said. Exports may reach 27 million tons for the season when shipments of peas are included, he said.

ProZerno will be able to make an estimate for exports in the coming season after the state statistics service releases figures this month on national carryover stocks, Petrichenko said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Marina Sysoyeva in Moscow at msysoyeva@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net.


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