Bloomberg News

U.S. Soybean Stockpiles to Plunge 17% in Oil World’s Forecast

May 22, 2012

U.S. soybean stockpiles will slump 17 percent by the end of August, more than previously forecast, on increased Chinese buying, Oil World said.

Ending stocks may decline to 4.85 million metric tons (178 million bushels) from 5.85 million tons as of the close of last August, the Hamburg-based oilseed researcher said today in a report.

Importers are increasingly switching to U.S. soybeans after drought reduced production in South America, according to Oil World. U.S. exports of the oilseed from April through August are expected to reach a record as shipments from Brazil and Paraguay decline, according to the researcher.

“World demand has increasingly switched to U.S. origin in response to the dwindling South American supplies of soybeans and products,” Oil World said. “From June onward the year-on- year decline in South American shipments is seen accelerating.”

The new outlook for U.S. stocks is almost 1 million tons below the previous estimate of 5.8 million tons, according to the researcher.

The U.S. is forecast to export 8.75 million tons of soybeans from April through August, compared with 5.48 million tons a year earlier, the researcher said. At the same time, Brazil’s shipments will slip to 19.2 million tons from 22.4 million tons and Paraguay’s soybean exports will drop to 1.44 million tons from 3.07 million tons, Oil World said.

Chinese imports of soybeans in the year through July will rise to 57 million tons from 53.1 million tons in 2010-11, according to Oil World.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rudy Ruitenberg in Paris at

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at

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