Bloomberg News

Dollar Advances Versus Most Major Peers Before Jobs Data

May 03, 2012

The dollar gained versus most of its major peers after data showed growth slowed in U.S. services industries, boosting demand for safety before a report tomorrow that may show U.S. payrolls increased last month.

Higher-yielding currencies, including Australia’s dollar, fell as stocks and commodities slumped amid a drop in risk appetite. The euro rose after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers didn’t discuss cutting interest rates at their meeting. New Zealand’s dollar tumbled after the jobless rate climbed more than forecast.

“The risk-off is probably due to the ISM services data that came out this morning; that was pretty disappointing,” said Eric Viloria, senior currency strategist at Gain Capital Group LLC in New York. “If there is a decline in the jobs tomorrow, then the market might expect more quantitative easing, so the dollar would actually weaken.”

The dollar rose 0.1 percent to 80.18 yen at 5 p.m. in New York, paring a 0.5 percent gain. It added 0.1 percent to $1.3152 per euro after earlier rising as much as 0.5 percent and falling 0.2 percent. The shared currency was unchanged at 105.46 yen after advancing earlier as much as 0.6 percent.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) retreated 0.8 percent, and the Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of raw materials dropped 0.9 percent.

Australia’s dollar lost 0.7 percent to $1.0264, and Canada’s dollar fell 0.2 percent to 98.85 cents per U.S. dollar.

ISM Index

The dollar pared an advance against the yen after the Institute for Supply Management’s index of non-manufacturing industries, which account for almost 90 percent of the U.S. economy, decreased to 53.5 in April from 56 a month earlier. The Tempe, Arizona-based group’s measure was projected to decline to 55.3, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Readings above 50 signal expansion.

The greenback had gained earlier as data showed initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. declined by 27,000 to a one-month low of 365,000 in the week ended April 28.

The Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow will show U.S. employers added 160,000 jobs last month, after a 120,000 increase in March, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

“Markets are going into the U.S. payrolls after a series of back and forth, and they could react if we see a strong surprise,” said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York.

The dollar has traded in a range of $1.30 to $1.35 per euro since the start of February.

‘Downside Risks’

The ECB kept its main refinancing rate at a record low 1 percent, as predicted by all 58 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. While the ECB still expects a gradual economic recovery this year, “downside risks” prevail and the outlook has become “more uncertain,” Draghi said.

“The market was looking for something on potential interest-rate cuts,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge- fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London. “We got nothing, so the euro is rallying as a result.”

The euro fell earlier today as Spanish borrowing costs increased at a note sale. Spain auctioned 765 million euros of notes due in January 2017 at an average yield of 4.75 percent, versus 3.57 percent at a previous sale of five-year securities on Feb. 2. It auctioned three-year debt at an average rate of 4.037 percent, compared with 2.617 percent on March 1.

Biggest Loser

Europe’s shared currency weakened 7.1 percent over the past 12 months, the worst performer among the 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar climbed 5.7 percent, and the yen gained 4.6 percent.

The yen fell earlier today on wagers the nation’s exporters are waiting for the currency to fall further before buying it. Japanese markets are shut today and tomorrow for holidays.

“Our internal flows have shown that exporters’ bid for yen has been absent for some time,” said Lee Hardman, a foreign- exchange strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. “This may suggest perhaps that they still anticipate that the yen could weaken further and are looking for better levels to buy.”

New Zealand’s currency, known as the kiwi, dropped against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts after unemployment exceeded the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

The jobless rate climbed to 6.7 percent in the first quarter from a revised 6.4 percent in the previous three months, Statistics New Zealand said.

The kiwi slid 1.4 percent to 79.97 U.S. cents and reached 79.88 cents, the weakest level since Jan. 17.

Down Channel

A so-called down channel is leading the yen to strengthen versus the dollar, reclaiming some of its losses this year that are the worst among the 16 most-traded currencies, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The yen is poised to appreciate toward 79.55 per dollar, a key support level for the U.S. currency, Niall O’Connor, a New York-based technical analyst with JPMorgan wrote in a note to clients. “Deeper support levels” for the dollar against the yen appear on charts at 79.15 and 78.35, he wrote.

“There hasn’t been a sense of a real turn in the economic picture,” O’Connor said in a telephone interview. “If the economic atmosphere in the U.S. gets worse, it’s a negative for the dollar, and thus the yen will probably outperform.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Catarina Saraiva in New York at asaraiva5@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net


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