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A contractor builds a house at the KB Home Bella Monte community in Dublin, California on March 21, 2012. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
Lennar Corp
Homebuilding in the U.S. probably climbed in March, marking the best quarter since 2008 and indicating the real-estate industry has steadied, economists said before a report today.
Housing starts increased to a 705,000 annual rate last month from a 698,000 pace in February, according to the median estimate of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Starts probably averaged 703,000 in the first three months of 2012, the most since the third quarter of 2008.
Warmer weather alongside historically-low lending costs and faster job creation may have spurred more home construction at the beginning of 2012. While the number of single-family housing starts last year was the lowest on record, work on multifamily units is providing homebuilders with new business.
“Housing starts are starting to see stabilization,” said Anika Khan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “The numbers are still coming from a very low base, but there’s improvement. We’re also still contending with a lot of the effects from weather.”
The housing starts figures are due from the Commerce Department at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 670,000 to 750,000.
The report may also show building permits slid by 0.7 percent to a 710,000 annual rate, according to the survey median. In February, the number of applications was at the highest level since October 2008.
Record-breaking warm weather probably boosted construction last month. The average temperature in the U.S. was 51.1 degrees Fahrenheit (10.6 Celsius), 38.6 degrees warmer than the 20th century average and the hottest reported March in records going back to 1895, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Even so, low borrowing costs and better job prospects should support demand for new homes. The average rate on a 30- year fixed mortgage reached an all-time low of 3.87 percent in February and was just a point higher at 3.88 percent in the week ended April 12, according to data from Freddie Mac.
Demand for apartments and condos, buildings that house multiple families, has also kept construction up. Builders began work on 241,000 of such units at an annual pace last month, the second most in more than three years.
Buyers “are starting to feel pressure not to miss this moment,” Lennar Corp. (LEN) Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said during a March 27 conference call with analysts. “The fully-loaded cost of ownership is lower in the most-desirable markets than comparable rental rates.”
New-home orders increased 33 percent in the three months ended Feb. 29, the third-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue said. Shares of the Miami-company rose to the highest level since 2007 after it reported the orders growth and net income that beat estimates.
Investors also are upbeat about prospects. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilding Index (S15HOME) has advanced 21 percent since the end of last year, more than the 8.9 percent gain in the broader S&P 500.
Bloomberg Survey
==============================================================
Housing Building Ind. Cap.
Starts Permits Prod. Util.
,000’s ,000’s MOM% %
==============================================================
Date of Release 04/17 04/17 04/17 04/17
Observation Period March March March March
--------------------------------------------------------------
Median 705 710 0.3% 78.5%
Average 704 709 0.2% 78.6%
High Forecast 750 750 0.7% 79.4%
Low Forecast 670 675 -0.6% 77.8%
Number of Participants 82 56 81 64
Previous 698 715 0.0% 78.4%
--------------------------------------------------------------
4CAST 690 680 0.2% 78.5%
ABN Amro 705 --- 0.3% ---
Action Economics 675 690 0.3% 78.5%
Aletti Gestielle 710 705 0.2% 78.5%
Ameriprise Financial 705 720 0.3% 78.5%
Analytical Synthesis 710 718 --- ---
Banca Aletti 710 700 0.1% 78.4%
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 710 --- 0.4% ---
Bantleon Bank AG 720 730 0.5% ---
Barclays Capital 720 --- 0.2% 78.6%
Bayerische Landesbank --- --- 0.2% 78.7%
BBVA 700 710 0.2% 78.5%
BMO Capital Markets 700 716 0.4% 78.6%
BNP Paribas 720 --- 0.2% 78.4%
BofA Merrill Lynch 705 710 0.3% ---
Briefing.com 700 700 0.1% 78.5%
Capital Economics 710 --- 0.1% 78.5%
CIBC World Markets 695 705 0.2% 78.5%
Citi 700 710 0.1% 78.3%
ClearView Economics 680 700 0.4% 79.0%
Comerica 705 --- 0.6% 79.4%
Commerzbank AG 720 715 0.2% 78.5%
Credit Agricole CIB 705 --- 0.3% 78.6%
Credit Suisse 690 725 -0.2% 78.2%
Daiwa Securities America 680 --- 0.2% ---
Danske Bank 725 715 0.4% ---
DekaBank 690 690 0.2% 78.5%
Desjardins Group 705 700 0.0% 78.3%
Deutsche Bank Securities 725 700 -0.1% 78.3%
Deutsche Postbank AG 720 --- 0.3% ---
DZ Bank 695 710 0.3% 78.4%
Exane 710 --- 0.1% ---
Fact & Opinion Economics 712 --- -0.2% ---
First Trust Advisors 705 --- 0.3% 78.6%
FTN Financial 700 708 --- ---
Helaba 710 710 0.1% 78.5%
High Frequency Economics 725 715 0.0% 78.3%
HSBC Markets 709 695 0.1% 78.3%
Hugh Johnson Advisors 700 --- 0.4% 78.6%
IDEAglobal 705 720 0.3% 78.7%
IHS Global Insight 717 688 0.2% 78.4%
Informa Global Markets 685 680 0.5% 78.6%
ING Financial Markets 721 707 0.5% 78.6%
Insight Economics 685 --- 0.3% 78.7%
Intesa Sanpaulo 705 710 0.0% ---
J.P. Morgan Chase 700 720 0.0% 78.3%
Janney Montgomery Scott 706 735 0.4% 78.7%
Jefferies & Co. 690 710 0.3% 78.6%
Landesbank Berlin 670 675 0.6% 78.7%
Landesbank BW 705 710 0.7% 79.0%
Maria Fiorini Ramirez 700 --- --- ---
Market Securities 688 --- 0.1% ---
MET Capital Advisors 705 --- 0.7% ---
Mizuho Securities 684 --- -0.1% 78.4%
Moody’s Analytics 710 730 0.6% 79.1%
Morgan Stanley & Co. 705 --- -0.1% 78.2%
National Bank Financial 705 720 0.3% 78.6%
Natixis 708 --- 0.4% 78.8%
Nomura Securities 738 739 0.4% 78.6%
Nord/LB 700 720 0.4% 78.7%
OSK Group/DMG 700 --- 0.3% ---
O’Sullivan 720 715 0.1% 78.4%
Parthenon Group 693 744 0.2% 78.5%
Pierpont Securities 700 --- -0.1% 78.4%
PineBridge Investments 691 --- 0.5% ---
PNC Bank 710 700 0.2% 78.5%
Raiffeisenbank International 750 750 0.2% 78.8%
Raymond James 725 720 0.2% 78.5%
RBC Capital Markets 675 --- 0.4% 78.6%
RBS Securities 710 --- 0.3% 78.9%
Scotia Capital 720 675 -0.1% ---
Societe Generale 695 690 0.3% 78.6%
Standard & Poor’s 675 690 0.3% 78.5%
Standard Chartered 700 717 0.3% 78.6%
Stone & McCarthy Research 710 712 -0.6% 77.8%
TD Securities 705 705 0.3% 78.6%
UBS 710 700 0.1% ---
UniCredit Research --- --- -0.5% 78.1%
Union Investment 700 725 0.3% 78.7%
University of Maryland 690 705 0.4% 79.0%
Wells Fargo & Co. 696 --- 0.2% 78.5%
WestLB AG 700 700 0.4% 78.6%
Westpac Banking Co. 691 697 0.4% ---
Wrightson ICAP 700 715 0.7% 78.9%
==============================================================
To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Kowalski in Washington at akowalski13@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net